The ACC’s best hope for a national championship basketball contender in 2008-09 hinges on a series of heartbreaks for two or three underclassmen at North Carolina.

If there is a perfect storm of pre-NBA draft disappointments for rising Carolina junior guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington plus senior wingman Danny Green and they all stay in school, the Tar Heels are a lock to begin the new season as the nation’s No. 1 ranked team.

All have declared for draft consideration but have until 5 p.m. June 16 to withdraw and retain their collegiate eligibility. The draft will be on June 26.

Lawson, who rates among the nation’s quickest and most effective point guards when in sound health, is the key figure. If he returns — even without Ellington and Green — Carolina would start the season as a favorite to reach the Final Four in Detroit.

Without Lawson, the Heels slip. Without all three, they don’t even have the league’s best team on paper despite the fact that national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough will be back for a fourth season in the program.

The league favorite then would be still-flawed Duke, or possibly even Wake Forest.

Based on player availability as of today — meaning all players declared for the draft remain in it — the ACC would remain an above-average league. But only that. Three to five teams have top-25 profiles. The rest are borderline NCAA Tournament hopefuls or far below, and it’s important to take into account that there will be the usual amount of off-season attrition, meaning at least four or five projected league starters will either leave school, transfer or flunk out academically.

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