If rising junior guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, plus senior wing man Danny Green, decide to eschew the NBA and stay in school, the Tar Heels are a lock to begin next season as the nation's No. 1-ranked team.

All three have declared for draft consideration but have until 5 p.m. on June 16 to withdraw their names and retain their collegiate eligibility. The draft itself will be on June 26.

Lawson, who rates among the nation's quickest and most effective point guards when healthy, is the key figure. With him in the lineup North Carolina would start the season as one of the favorites to reach the Final Four in Detroit, even if Ellington and Green leave.

Without Lawson, the Heels slip. Without all three, they don't even have the league's best team on paper, despite the fact that national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough will return for a fourth and final season.

The league favorite then would be Duke, or possibly even Wake Forest.

Based on player availability as of today -- meaning all players who have declared for the draft remain in it -- the ACC would remain an above-average league. But only that. Three to five teams have top-25 potential. The rest are borderline NCAA Tournament hopefuls, or far below. And it's important to take into account that there will be the usual amount of offseason attrition, meaning at least four or five projected league starters will leave school for some reason, transfer or flunk out.

BLUE DEVILS GET A BOOST

Here's the outlook for 2008-09, based on the assumption that those who have applied for the NBA Draft won't return

1. DUKE (28-6, 13-3)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Lance Thomas, Jr., F; Kyle Singler, So., F; Gerald Henderson, Jr., W; Jon Scheyer, Jr., W; Greg Paulus, Sr., G

The recent addition of 6-foot-10 recruit Miles Plumlee represents something of a godsend. His arrival will help in two obvious areas of need -- size and depth -- while alleviating some of the pressure that would have been on Singler to work in the low post much of the time. Plumlee might be a starter, but he projects as an important contributor from the outset. A healthy Brian Zoubek, who is recovering from a second surgery on his left foot, would add to Mike Krzyzewski's push to expand the frontcourt rotation.

OVERVIEW: The perimeter should be among the nation's best, and Paulus' experience at the point cannot be overlooked. Henderson will be one of the league's most explosive offensive players. With the addition of Plumlee, the Devils have the profile of a top-10 team.

2. NORTH CAROLINA (36-3, 14-2)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Tyler Hansbrough, Sr. F; Deon Thompson, Jr., F; Marcus Ginyard, Sr., W; Will Graves, So., W; Bobby Frasor, Jr., G

Everything hinges on the status of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. The popular assumption is that only Lawson is likely to stay in the NBA Draft pool, but no one can know for sure until announcements are made. The key man is Frasor, who is returning from major knee surgery and might need to play 30 or more minutes per game at the point. Recruits Ed Davis and Larry Drew arrive with reputations as accurate shooters.

OVERVIEW: The offensive pace will slow unless Lawson returns to push the tempo. But with Hansbrough surrounded by a wealth of size and experience inside, the Heels will remain a top-15 team.

3. WAKE FOREST (17-13, 7-9)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Chas McFarland, Jr., C; James Johnson, So., F; L.D. Williams, Jr., W; Jeff Teague, So, G.; Ishmael Smith, Jr., G

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