The ACC's best hope for a national championship basketball contender in 2008-09 hinges on the decisions of three underclassmen at North Carolina.

If rising junior guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, plus senior wing man Danny Green, decide to eschew the NBA and stay in school, the Tar Heels are a lock to begin next season as the nation's No. 1-ranked team.

All three have declared for draft consideration but have until 5 p.m. on June 16 to withdraw their names and retain their collegiate eligibility. The draft itself will be on June 26.

Lawson, who rates among the nation's quickest and most effective point guards when healthy, is the key figure. With him in the lineup North Carolina would start the season as one of the favorites to reach the Final Four in Detroit, even if Ellington and Green leave.

Without Lawson, the Heels slip. Without all three, they don't even have the league's best team on paper, despite the fact that national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough will return for a fourth and final season.

The league favorite then would be Duke, or possibly even Wake Forest.

Based on player availability as of today -- meaning all players who have declared for the draft remain in it -- the ACC would remain an above-average league. But only that. Three to five teams have top-25 potential. The rest are borderline NCAA Tournament hopefuls, or far below. And it's important to take into account that there will be the usual amount of offseason attrition, meaning at least four or five projected league starters will leave school for some reason, transfer or flunk out.

BLUE DEVILS GET A BOOST

Here's the outlook for 2008-09, based on the assumption that those who have applied for the NBA Draft won't return

1. DUKE (28-6, 13-3)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Lance Thomas, Jr., F; Kyle Singler, So., F; Gerald Henderson, Jr., W; Jon Scheyer, Jr., W; Greg Paulus, Sr., G

The recent addition of 6-foot-10 recruit Miles Plumlee represents something of a godsend. His arrival will help in two obvious areas of need -- size and depth -- while alleviating some of the pressure that would have been on Singler to work in the low post much of the time. Plumlee might be a starter, but he projects as an important contributor from the outset. A healthy Brian Zoubek, who is recovering from a second surgery on his left foot, would add to Mike Krzyzewski's push to expand the frontcourt rotation.

OVERVIEW: The perimeter should be among the nation's best, and Paulus' experience at the point cannot be overlooked. Henderson will be one of the league's most explosive offensive players. With the addition of Plumlee, the Devils have the profile of a top-10 team.

2. NORTH CAROLINA (36-3, 14-2)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Tyler Hansbrough, Sr. F; Deon Thompson, Jr., F; Marcus Ginyard, Sr., W; Will Graves, So., W; Bobby Frasor, Jr., G

Everything hinges on the status of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. The popular assumption is that only Lawson is likely to stay in the NBA Draft pool, but no one can know for sure until announcements are made. The key man is Frasor, who is returning from major knee surgery and might need to play 30 or more minutes per game at the point. Recruits Ed Davis and Larry Drew arrive with reputations as accurate shooters.

OVERVIEW: The offensive pace will slow unless Lawson returns to push the tempo. But with Hansbrough surrounded by a wealth of size and experience inside, the Heels will remain a top-15 team.

3. WAKE FOREST (17-13, 7-9)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Chas McFarland, Jr., C; James Johnson, So., F; L.D. Williams, Jr., W; Jeff Teague, So, G.; Ishmael Smith, Jr., G

With recruits Al-Farouq Aminu (6-8), Ty Walker (7-0) and Tony Woods (6-10) joining the mix, Dino Gaudio will have several more frontcourt options by mid-to-late season, meaning the fast-improving McFarland won't have such a heavy workload -- plus Johnson gets more freedom to roam. Smith and Teague are too quick for some ACC teams to contain.

OVERVIEW: The three-season NCAA Tournament drought should end as the Deacons make a jump from the league's second division into regular-season contention. There is no reason Wake shouldn't be a top-25 team by season's end.

4. MIAMI (23-11, 8-8)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Dwayne Collins, Jr., F; Cyrus McGowan, Jr. F; Jack McClinton, Sr., W; James Dews, Jr., G; Lance Hurdle, Sr., G

McGowan, a physical 6-9 transfer, will help offset the loss of Anthony King and should provide Collins with sufficient rebounding help. Seniors Brian Asbury and Jimmy Graham will play regularly, even if they don't start. It's possible that Winston-Salem recruit Reginald Johnson (6-9, 280) can get up to speed fast enough to increase the inside depth. The perimeter is impressive and deep.

OVERVIEW: The Hurricanes will get preseason top-25 votes, and Frank Haith clearly has upgraded the program. Even so, there is still no consistent homecourt advantage.

5. VIRGINIA TECH (21-14, 9-7)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Jeff Allen, So., F; Lewis Witcher, Jr., F; A.D. Vassallo, Sr., W; J.T. Thompson, So., W; Malcolm Delaney, So., G

If this turns out to be the lineup Seth Greenberg settles on, he'll likely have the league's quickest and most productive sixth man in sophomore guard Hank Thorns. If the 5-9 Thorns keeps Thompson (6-6) on the bench, the Hokies could have matchup problems on the perimeter against bigger ACC foes. But overall, depth is beginning to work in Greenberg's favor, and signee Vic Davila (6-9, 240) has the look of another Allen.

OVERVIEW: Vassallo is a threat to lead the league in scoring, and the Hokies are the best dark-horse candidate among the 12 teams.

6. CLEMSON (24-10, 10-6)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Trevor Booker, Jr., F; Raymond Sykes, Sr., F; K.C. Rivers, Sr., W; Demontez Stitt, So., G; Terrence Oglesby, So., G

Will the Tigers have enough leadership without Cliff Hammonds and James Mays around to provide a settling presence on the court and in the locker room? If so, there might not be a big drop in the win total. If not, Clemson could be the N.C. State of 2008-09. Rivers and Oglesby will combine to launch a barrage of 3-point attempts.

OVERVIEW: With less size and quickness, Oliver Purnell will place heavy emphasis on halfcourt defense and, of course, improved free-throw shooting. It's probably back to the NCAA bubble for the Tigers.

7. GEORGIA TECH (15-17, 7-9)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Gani Lawal, So., F; Zack Peacock, Jr., F; D'Andre Bell, Sr., W; Maurice Miller, So, G.; Lewis Clinch, Sr., G

It'll help that oft-injured Ra'Sean Dickey (6-10, 250) will be back for a medical redshirt season and there's hope that 6-4 recruit Iman Shumpert could emerge as a poor man's Javaris Crittenton. Clinch and Lawal, who combined to average less than 17 points per game, will be expected to jump-start the offense.

OVERVIEW: There are still a lot of questions about the Yellow Jackets, and it's not clear that Paul Hewitt can sign and keep enough talent to get the program back to where it was in 2004.

8. MARYLAND (19-15, 8-8)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Jerome Burney, Jr., F; Braxton Dupree, So, F; Landon Milbourne, Jr., W; Eric Hayes, Jr., G.; Greivis Vasquez, Jr., G

With James Gist and Bambale Osby in the 2008 lineup, the Terps were barely able to outrebound opponents, and that was with the versatile Vasquez chipping in 5.7 per game. Burney and Dupree have decent size and some mobility, but the frontcourt looms as a long, trying adventure for Gary Williams in his 20th season at his alma mater.

OVERVIEW: Vasquez has the potential to be a one-man team. The problem is he may have to be.

9. N.C. STATE (15-16, 4-12)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Brandon Costner, Jr., F; Ben McCauley, Sr., F; Courtney Fells, Sr., W; Julius Mays, Fr., G; Farnold Degand, Jr., G.

If J.J. Hickson pulls out of the draft, the entire offensive equation will change. But unless that happens, the Wolfpack has to hope Costner reverts to the productive scoring ways (16.8 ppg) of 2006-07. Either way, the addition of the 6-2 Mays should improve team quickness and provide more perimeter scoring punch. The bench could be a plus, if Dennis Horner, Tracy Smith and Trevor Ferguson just make average offseason improvements.

OVERVIEW: The pressure is beginning to mount on Sidney Lowe as he enters his third season, and there's no question that a healthy Degand is the key to the Pack's progress.

10. BOSTON COLLEGE (14-17, 4-12)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Tyler Roche, Jr., F; Joe Trapani, So., F; Rakim Sanders, So., W; Corey Raji, So., W; Tyrese Rice, Sr., G

Trapani, a 6-8 transfer from Vermont, will provide some additional size, but the Eagles will still be at a significant height disadvantage against almost every team in the league. Roche (6-7) and Raji (6-5) are active and eager, but Shamari Spears' decision to transfer leaves Al Skinner without his best rebounder of 2008.

OVERVIEW: While Rice's offensive ingenuity will keep BC close in some games and there's a good chance the team's overall depth will increase, everything points to another struggle.

11. FLORIDA STATE (19-15, 7-9)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Uche Echefu, Sr. F; Ryan Reid, Jr., F; Solomon Alabi, So., F; Toney Douglas, Sr., G.; Derwin Kitchen, Jr., G

Duke, Maryland and Boston College could use some of the size that Leonard Hamilton has gradually stockpiled. This could be one of the biggest, and slowest, teams in the country. But Hamilton has few options to downsize in hopes of finding more quickness. Kitchen (6-4) has bounced from school to school but does project as a decent playmaker.

OVERVIEW: Other than Douglas, who produces points?

12. VIRGINIA (5-11, 17-16)

PROJECTED STARTERS: Laurynas Mikalauskas, Sr., F; Mike Scott, So., F; Jeff Jones, So., W; Mamadi Diane, Sr., W; Sam Zeglinski, So., G

Zeglinski was injured almost all of last season and likely will be reclassified as a redshirt freshman before October. A 6-foot speedster when healthy, he's the leader to take over the role Sean Singletary played, seemingly forever. But it's a mile-long stretch to assume this team can match last season's 76.8 scoring average. Diane averaged 11.8 points, but a lot of those were the result of defensive double-teaming on Singletary.

OVERVIEW: For all of Dave Leitao's energy and optimism, the Cavaliers are drifting off course at a time when there doesn't seem to be a Singletary or J.R. Reynolds on the horizon.