CHARLOTTE - The Carolina Panthers are going to select an offensive lineman in the first round of the NFL draft.

I don't know this. Nobody knows. The Panthers don't know. But I feel it.

I don't want to feel it. I want a running back. I especially want Rashard Mendenhall out of Illinois. I am not aware of actually having seen Mendenhall play. But based on everything I've read, he's big, he's tough, and he will go far in this league and in this world.

The NFL draft is the most overblown event in sports. That's why I love it.

Nobody has to know what they're talking about except general managers, coaches and ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.

I love Mel Kiper Jr. and, if there's a Mel Kiper Sr., I love him, too. The younger Kiper is the role model for everybody who has ever had a dream while living in his parents' basement.

When Kiper was in college, most students had posters of Bruce Springsteen and Farrah Fawcett on their wall. Kiper had a Big Board on which he ranked college football players. He published his rankings, and he was discovered, and now you cannot hold a credible draft, or credible draft coverage, without him.

The draft begins Saturday, and serious fans will refuse to venture far from their television sets -- unless they're fans of the New York Jets. Fans of the Jets will go to Radio City Music Hall, site of the draft, and boo the players the Jets select.

Those of us in civilized cities will shake our heads at their contempt. We won't boo our team's first pick until mid-September. But before we boo him, we will adore him. In our eyes, he will be the savior. On the field, he will be Thomas Davis.

The Panthers will pick 13th. Although they've never drafted 13th, they have drafted 14th. In 2005 they selected Davis, a tremendous athlete out of Georgia, with the 14th pick. If you assessed him as a football player after three seasons with the Panthers, you would say that he is a tremendous athlete.

The NFL is about winning. The NFL draft is about wishing. We see highlights of a running back ripping through the defense of the Juilliard School and think, Carolina has to have this guy.

Then it doesn't.

Last year the Panthers selected Jon Beason with the 25th pick. I tried to remember Beason making plays for Miami, and I couldn't remember anybody making plays for Miami. Then Beason became an instant star and a brilliant pick.

Did you know he'd be as good as he is? "I did, yeah," Panthers general manager Marty Hurney said Monday.

He's kidding.

I ask Hurney what Carolina is looking for in the draft. He said: offensive line, tight end, receiver, running back, quarterback (if it's the right quarterback), defensive tackle, defensive end and safety.

A faster way to say this is the Panthers are not looking for a linebacker or a cornerback.

The fastest way to say this is they're going to select an offensive lineman.