News & Observer | newsobserver.com | Twister followed hard upon warning

Published: Nov 19, 2006 12:00 AM
Modified: Nov 19, 2006 03:04 AM

Twister followed hard upon warning

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TORNADO FACTS

* TORNADO WATCH means tornadoes and other kinds of severe weather are possible in the next several hours. It does not mean tornadoes are imminent.

* TORNADO WARNING means that a tornado has been spotted or that Doppler radar indicates a thunderstorm circulation that can spawn a tornado.

HIGH-RISK HOMES

* DO MOBILE HOMES ATTRACT TORNADOES? No. It may seem that way, considering that most tornado deaths occur in them and that some of the most graphic reports of tornado damage come from mobile home communities. The reason for this is that mobile homes are, in general, much easier for a tornado to damage than well-built houses and office buildings. A brief, relatively weak tornado that might have gone undetected in the wilderness can blow a mobile home apart. Historically, mobile-home damage has been a reliable indicator of a tornado's path.

NOAA STORM PREDICTION CENTER OF OKLAHOMA

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Last week, when National Weather Service meteorologists spotted spinning inside a massive thunderstorm, they immediately issued a tornado warning for four Eastern North Carolina counties.

That was 6:29 a.m. Thursday.

WWAY-TV in Wilmington, already tracking the storm closely, received that alert in seconds. Meteorologist Jerry Jackson broke into a commercial to alert his viewers.

That was 6:30 a.m.

Still, the tornado killed eight people before dawn Thursday in tiny Armour in Columbus County. A dozen more were injured, including four children who were badly hurt. It is possible that no one in danger's way had any notice before the twister touched the ground.

That was 6:37 a.m. -- just eight minutes after the first alarm.

Science has yet to find a way to consistently detect long in advance when or where tornadoes will form. The use of radar to scan storms for telltale signs of rotation allows meteorologists to issue warnings before tornadoes form.

People who aren't within earshot of specially programmed weather radios or aggressive media can easily miss those warnings. Communities that experience tornadoes infrequently -- including places such as Columbus County -- can't justify installing warning systems of their own.

For many, the first sign of a tornado is a train-like roar.

"By the time I'm long gone, I hope we have a way to find the things that cause tornadoes" and give people earlier warnings, said Reid Hawkins, senior science officer at the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

It's not that meteorologists aren't getting better at this. Between 1986 and 2004, the average amount of time between tornado warnings and twister strikes more than doubled, University of Oklahoma research shows. The average lead time grew from about 5 minutes to 13 minutes, though sometimes there was no warning at all.

And the National Weather Service often errs on the side of caution, issuing more warnings than are needed. On Friday, the weather service in Wilmington issued six tornado warnings, but only three applied to the twister that dashed into Armour. The Raleigh weather service office issued tornado warnings for six counties Thursday based on radar information, but there were no confirmed touchdowns.

No quick fixes are on the horizon, Hawkins said. Coming improvements in radar will buy a little more time. New radar arrays in coming years are expected to cut the time it takes to fully scan a storm from four and a half minutes to one, he said.

Given the short notice available to him Thursday, one survivor in Armour said he was just as glad he hadn't heard from the weather service or a local broadcaster in those minutes before dawn.

Darryl McNair, 34, was at home when heavy winds struck and flipped his mobile home. He had to crawl out a hole in the roof.

If he had heard something big was on its way, he might have run outside just in time to get speared by sharp, spinning debris. Thursday's storm, with estimated winds of 200 mph, was strong enough to flip cars.

"I don't know what would have happened to me," McNair said.

Still, warnings can help, Hawkins said, even if they only give people enough time to get to the best protected room in a house. That spot should be identified before trouble strikes, the meteorologist said. Having heavy blankets stored there for protection from debris is a good idea, too.

And Hawkins advises people to purchase the best technology available today until researchers come up with something better.

"Buy a weather radio," he said.

(Staff writer Jerry Allegood contributed to this report.)

Staff writer Catherine Clabby can be reached at 956-2414 or cclabby@newsobserver.com.
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