News & Observer | newsobserver.com | Sales of Triangle homes off again

Published: Apr 01, 2008 12:30 AM
Modified: Apr 01, 2008 05:49 AM

Sales of Triangle homes off again

Slower job growth, foreclosures and tighter credit pull the local market down for the eighth straight month

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Sales of the Triangle's existing homes fell for the eighth consecutive month in February amid a sagging national economy and tighter lending restrictions.

Existing home sales declined 16 percent from a year ago in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties to a total of 1,590, according to the Triangle Multiple Listing Service, which collects sales and other data from local residential brokerages.

Job growth and a market unscathed by speculator-driven purchases had kept the Triangle housing market relatively strong during the national housing slowdown. But slowing job growth, record foreclosures, which added hundreds of additional homes into the market, and tighter lending restrictions have cooled the local market from its 2006 record.

Also, weak sales in other markets across the country increasingly hurt the ability of this area's influx of newcomers to unload their previous homes. That hurts demand here.

A bright spot locally remains home prices, which continue to rise. The average existing home sold for $244,363 in February, up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

But experts and brokers, who expect the sales decline to persist through at least midyear, said more price drops will be needed to break the logjam created by slowing demand and growing supply.

Wes Minton, an owner of the York Simpson Underwood residential brokerage in Raleigh, said brokers and sellers were spoiled by record sales years from 2003 through 2006.

"It was good so long, it can't be that good all the time in any business," Minton said.

"Sellers saw such big numbers in sales prices for so long everybody thinks their house will bring top dollar," said Minton, whose sales are down about 10 percent from last year. "But in the market now, things aren't bringing top dollar. There are plenty of houses selling, but sellers aren't getting as much as they hoped."

February's 16 percent sales decline was roughly half of January's 29.6 percent drop and might reflect the start of the traditionally strong spring selling season, brokers said.

But other statistics suggest this spring will be memorable for slower sales, not increases.

Pending sales -- an indication of future closings -- were down 23 percent from a year earlier. The number of homes on the market with price drops was 69 percent higher than in 2007.

Expired listings are up 189 percent, and withdrawn listings are up 29 percent, said TMLS real estate analyst Stacey P. Anfindsen.

The average number of days on the market was 96 days, up from 83 a year ago. The inventory of unsold homes is 27.2 percent higher than a year ago and has reached a 10-month supply. Markets are considered evenly balanced between supply and demand with a six-month inventory.

Residential building permits in Wake County, where home sales and construction are concentrated, were down 34 percent in January and February from a year before.

'Rest of world worse'

"You've got a real housing slowdown on your hands," said Moody's Economy.com economist Michael Helmar. "It still isn't as bad as the rest of the world, but that doesn't mean you are not having some struggles. It just means the rest of the world is worse."

February's decline in existing home sales locally bucked the 2.9 percent national increase reported last week. That increase surprised analysts, who cautioned that it was too soon to say the national housing slump is over.

Existing homes sales in the Triangle are now down 22 percent from their peak in second quarter 2006, Helmar said. By comparison, Las Vegas existing home sales are down 65 percent, Miami is down 60 percent and Sacramento, Calif., is down 58 percent.

Some local brokers say their sales remain solid.

Linda Craft of Raleigh, who sells about 350 homes annually as owner of Linda Craft and Team Realtors, said this year's sales are 8 percent ahead of 2007. She has increased advertising and now hires home stagers for all listings. But another key to higher sales is advising sellers not to expect prices from a bygone market.

"Six months ago, agents would ask another 6 to 10 percent, and in a down market that formula doesn't work," Craft said.

"Now we're putting [prices] where the market really is," Craft said. "Rather than the seller putting the price out there, we're looking at the current market and pricing accordingly. I expect a very good year this year."

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