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RALEIGH -- It's 6:45 a.m., and outside Progress Energy's office tower in downtown Raleigh the day is already promising to be a scorcher, signaling heavy electricity demand ahead.
Up on the 10th floor, energy traders have been on the job through the night preparing to meet that demand at the lowest possible cost. Round-the-clock traders use instant messaging to buy and sell electricity from and to other utilities. Others work the phones by day to nail down coal contracts that will dispatch mile-long trainloads to fuel Progress Energy's power plants.
All summer, state auditors will be taking a close look at how well the 10th floor performs. Progress Energy, citing rising fuel costs, has asked for a 16.2 percent rate increase, one of the largest in a half century. Utilities are allowed to pass on fuel costs to customers, but Progress Energy must prove to the N.C. Utilities Commission that its electricity purchases are prudent and that it's not overpaying for coal.
Progress Energy draws from several energy sources. To minimize average fuel costs, traders constantly adjust the mix, based on demand, availability and cost. Residential customers in North Carolina pay 9.7 cents per kilowatt hour for the fuel component of their power bill.
If Progress Energy must buy energy from other companies, the cost can vary widely and can go higher than 50 cents per kilowatt hour.
TIME FRAME: Progress Energy's proposal to raise residential rates in North Carolina by 16.2 percent is so steep that the company will likely agree to spread out the increase over several years to reduce "rate shock" to customers.
WHO DECIDES?: The rate increase is subject to approval by the N.C. Utilities Commission.
PUBLIC HEARINGS: Sept. 16
RULING: The N.C. Utilities Commission is expected to decide in November.
EFFECTIVE DATE: Dec. 1
Utilities are legally permitted to pass on their fuel costs to customers as long as they don't make a profit on fuel purchases. Progress Energy won't have to pay its $1.7 billion bill for fuel and purchased power in the Carolinas -- if it can demonstrate its purchases were prudent.
It's rare for a Progress Energy reimbursement request to be denied. It last happened in 1993, when the N.C. Utilities Commission said the company ran the Brunswick nuclear plant ineptly, requiring reliance on higher-costing coal. The commissioners disallowed $3.5 million, or about 1 percent of the company's fuel bill for the year.
Last year, Florida regulators ruled that Progress Energy was irresponsible in its coal purchases, ordering the company to refund customers $12.4 million.
Florida's public advocate, however, had accused company officials of mismanagement and recklessness, and had pushed for a refund of $143 million.
Progress Energy officials and state regulators say that, if not for the company's power traders and power plant operations, the proposed rate increase could be twice as steep.
The key to keeping fuel costs down is maximizing nuclear power, said Robert P. Gruber, the executive director of the Public Staff, this state's consumer advocacy agency. Progress Energy ran its nuclear plants 93 percent of the time last year, beating the national average and idling the plants only for maintenance, refueling and repairs.
"The more you can squeeze out of nuclear plants, the less you have to purchase, use, consume of the other fuels," said James McLawhorn, director of the Public Staff's electric division.
But nuclear plants generated only 42 percent of the electricity Progress needed last year. Coal-burning power plants provide about half the electricity Progress Energy requires for the Carolinas. Last year, coal cost the company about 4 cents a kilowatt hour, or eight times as much as uranium.
A small portion of power comes from natural gas, which can range in cost from about 7 cents to 15 cents a kilowatt hour.
Fuel cost is just one factor that determines whether Progress Energy fires up its own power plant or buys electricity from another utility. Mechanical limitations also influence planning decisions. It takes just 10 minutes to ramp up a natural gas plant, but about 12 hours to bring a coal-burning plant to full power. Nuclear plants can take several days to ramp up.
Wear and tear also figure into the equation: Gas plants can tolerate about 200 starts before requiring a $5 million overhaul.
The Public Staff, the state agency that represents utility customers, says the company has a reputation for squeezing maximum efficiency out of fuel contracts, power plant operations and electricity deals. One key measure: Progress Energy runs its nuclear plants 93 percent of the time, beating the national average.
"They're very experienced at this," said James McLawhorn, director of the Public Staff's electric division. "They are among the most efficiently performing coal plants in the country. They are top performers in terms of nuclear -- there's no question."
Is bias built in?
Some say the high praise for Progress Energy reflects a bias in the state's system of utility regulation: It rewards utilities for satisfying the public's hunger for cheap electricity. Indeed, major power companies are planning new nuclear plants and coal plants to meet customers' growing demand. Only last year did the state legislature create a mechanism to reward utilities for lowering electricity consumption by encouraging customers to adopt energy efficiency measures at home and at the office.
Environmentalists contend that if regulators and lawmakers exerted greater pressure on utilities to reduce energy demand, the utilities could could avoid the expense of building some plants. In holding down the cost of electricity, they say, conservation is more effective than the 10th floor.
"The system is biased toward running power plants and building more power plants," said Stephen A. Smith, executive director of the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. "If the utilities invested in energy efficiency they would hedge and moderate their customers' exposure to these fuel prices. The system needs to be designed so it's not skewed toward more power plants."
The soaring price of fuels and power plant construction is beginning to force the state to require conservation alongside efficient energy acquisition. But as the state weighs Progress Energy's rate-increase request, it will scrutinize the hive of activity that hums of the 10th floor.
Progress Energy recently opened the usually closed operation for a tour by a News & Observer reporter. Sasha Weintraub, who directs the 10th-floor operation, said for years, as long as fuel prices were stable, the traders had grown accustomed to working in obscurity.
"When fuel prices go crazy as they have in the past few months, everything we do is in the spotlight," he said.
An early start
The 10th-floor routine starts at 5:30 a.m., when power-demand forecasters assess that day's energy needs, weighing plant availability, temperature forecasts and other factors. A congested interstate transmission line, for example, means that Progress can't count on buying or selling power with Southern Co. in Georgia.
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