Gift from above: falling airfares pose a dilemma

Cheap seats could last until year's end

Last-minute travelers this Thanksgiving enjoyed some nifty rewards from the airlines: dirt cheap fares.

The gift is expected to last through Christmas as airlines try to keep the planes filled. But travelers now face a quandary. They can lock in now while fares seem reasonable and seats are available. Or they can wait, and hope prices fall further.

Many who traveled last week made the mistake of buying early, thinking that fares would only go up. Fares plummeted instead.

But finding a bargain depends on chance as much as anything else, as Abbie Logwood recently learned.

The Lynchburg, Va., resident had planned to drive 2 1/2 days to Albuquerque, N.M. But while visiting with friends in Atlantic Beach over Thanksgiving one suggested she hunt for air bargains instead. Skeptical at first, Logwood quickly found a round-trip ticket from Raleigh-Durham International Airport for $240 on USAirways.

Logwood said when she first started planning her trip the air fare had been about $1,000.

Discounts are typically to destinations like Houston, San Diego and other locations that don't attract hordes of tourists but would normally be filled by business travelers, said Raleigh travel agent Tony Maupin. With business travel slacking off, airlines are looking for other customers.

Northwest Airlines was the first to offer sales Oct. 29. All major airlines followed, as travel demand slumped, Maupin said.

"You're going to see a significant decline in fares to get people back," said Julius Maldutis, an industry analyst and president of Aviation Dynamics in New York.

Ed and Della Latta had been monitoring flights about five months for the best deal to visit their son in Hawaii. This summer the best prices were about $1,000 for a round-trip fare. The retired couple from Chocowinity, east of Raleigh, were patient and last month found flights for $511.

"You can't get the good deals until you get closer to the date you're going to fly," Della Latta said Friday as she waited to pick up her luggage upon returning to RDU.

According to airfare pricing service Farecompare, the average cheapest flight from RDU to the top 50 cities was down to $175 this week, from $210 one year ago. Bargains out of RDU have included a round-trip flight to San Diego on American Airlines, down to $240 last week from $870 as recently as Nov. 14, Maupin said.

It's a dramatic reversal from this summer, when oil prices spiked and the airline industry, along with savvy travelers, assumed that energy costs would continue rising. The carriers stocked up on jet fuel and travelers locked in on prices, assuming things would get a lot worse. Then oil prices began a four-month descent, forcing airlines to start grounding airplanes.

"That was the first attempt to keep the prices up," said Graeme Wallace, chief technology officer at Farecompare. "They've had to introduce a whole lot of air fare sales to get [people] on seats for the holiday season."