Dudley Price, Staff Writer
Sales of existing homes in the Triangle fell last month as the worst national slump in 16 years continued to pinch the market.
Total closings dropped 9 percent in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties as tighter lending rules and a shrinking pool of buyers caused sales to decline for a second consecutive month.
Existing-home sales totaled 2,833 in the four-county area, down from 3,113 in August 2006, according to Triangle Multiple Listing Service.
"What's happened nationally has now caught up with North Carolina as a whole and Raleigh-Durham specifically," said Michael Helmar of Moody's Economy.com, who tracks the Triangle housing market.
Continued job growth and a robust economy have spared the Triangle's biggest industry the pain being felt in Arizona, California, Florida and other markets glutted with overpriced homes.
Sales of existing Triangle homes in the first eight months of 2007 were down 1.9 percent compared with the year-ago period. Even steeper declines are likely: The inventory of unsold houses is the highest in at least a year, up 20.9 percent from August 2006. Pending sales -- contracts signed in August that would be finalized next month -- declined 15 percent, and showings were down 9 percent. The number of homes pulled off the market was up 39 percent, and the number of price drops was up 39 percent.
Tuesday's short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will provide some relief for borrowers, but it won't make most mortgages more affordable.
"Total [Triangle] sales will probably be 10 percent to 15 percent off last year," said Ross Rhudy, chief operating officer and general manager at one of the region's largest residential brokerages, Ammons Pittman GMAC Real Estate.
Problems in the subprime mortgage sector have led to tighter lending restrictions. Also, transplants are still having trouble selling their homes elsewhere unless they are willing to take a loss.
One of Rhudy's clients last week sold a home in the Washington, D.C., area for $590,000, though it cost $700,000 two years earlier. Sales will drop further because the fourth quarter traditionally is slow, and cheap mortgage loans in past years had satisfied demand for homes, he said.
"We had such a strong run that put homes within reach of just about everyone," Rhudy said.
Prices remain a bright spot.
The average home price for the region in August was $247,582, up 7.2 percent, according to Triangle Multiple Listing Service.
Wake County was up 7.1 percent to an average of $272,977; Orange was up 19.3 percent to $379,777; Durham was up 8.7 percent to $199,729, and Johnston was up 5.3 percent to $181,348.
But building permits, an indicator of future sales, were down in August. Wake County permits were down 5 percent from last year, at 997. Durham County permits were down 30.3 percent.
Buyers can't expect much help from the Fed's lowering of short-term lending rates. Most mortgage rates are tied to 10-year Treasury notes and other benchmarks, which are only indirectly related to the Fed's rate.
In fact, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 5.875 percent before Tuesday's rate cut to about 6 percent afterwards, said Glen Astolfi, chief operating officer of DNJ Mortgage in Raleigh.
"What the Fed did doesn't help the mortgage problems we have," Astolfi said. "The guys with bad credit still have bad credit and still can't get a loan. Foreclosures will continue to rise."
But the lower rates could boost consumer confidence, which might pep up sales, said Phyllis York Brookshire, regional vice president of Allen Tate Realtors.
The local economy is still strong from new jobs. A large inventory of unsold homes has shifted the market in buyers' favor, she said. "It's a terrific time to buy a house in our market," Brookshire said.