Paul Gilster
As we move into 2004, here are some thoughts on trends to watch in what should be a solid growth year for high tech.
CELL PHONE MESSAGING: Seventy-six percent of Web surfers now use some type of instant message software. Short Message Service is IM adapted for cell phones. As phones and hand-held computers increasingly merge, watch the popularity of SMS go through the roof, especially among the younger crowd. Wireless World Forum predicts a 47 percent increase in SMS subscribers under the age of 25 by the end of 2004.
TRANSLATION ON THE GO: New speech recognition software holds the promise of automatic translation from one language to another. Based on research at Carnegie Mellon University, the "Speechalator" is a prototype that turns Arabic to English and vice versa and runs on an HP iPaq computer. Expect a wave of development in translation as military projects for medical and security uses proliferate. It's also being driven by China's 2008 Olympics, which is spurring translation research for the tourism industry.
AN EASIER LOOK AT ALTERNATIVES: Moving between operating systems has been almost unthinkable for many people, who fear losing data just to evaluate another user interface. But a CD-based system called Knoppix lets you load Linux, complete with all major user programs, without touching Windows. Knoppix (
www.knoppix.net) runs entirely from the CD, is fast and functional, and is available both online and through publishers such as Addison-Wesley, which included it in Marcel Gagne's new book "Moving to Linux: Kiss the Blue Screen of Death Goodbye!" (Addison-Wesley, $34.99).
ROBOTS CONQUER THE HOME: Roomba is a robot vacuum cleaner. But iRobot, a firm started by MIT graduates (
www.irobot.com), is also working on a project called Swarm, which allows clusters of robots to work together like insects. The Japanese are wild about robots. The latest version of Honda's humanoid Asimo robot can interpret human gestures and recognize faces. Keep an eye on Fujitsu, whose Maron-1 is a $3,000 sentry robot that detects intruders and can operate household appliances.
SURGING NANOTECHNOLOGY: Manufacturing objects atom by atom is no longer a dream of science fiction writers. A team led by Alex Zettl at the University of California, Berkeley, has created a motor smaller than the width of a human hair. Nanotechnology is in its infancy, but expect startling growth. The 1,200 nanotech start-ups in the country today are in high-tech's hottest field, with the National Science Foundation predicting that global markets for their products should exceed $1 trillion annually by 2015.
GENETICS FOR LONGER LIVES: Elixir Pharmaceuticals, a biotech company in Cambridge, Mass., has found a way to increase the lifespan of certain worms up to six times. The secret is to alter the activity of their genes by controlling how they regulate the metabolism. Elixir hopes one day to market longevity products for people that take advantage of this research (
www.elixirpharm.com). The company says it is aiming at longer lifespans with fewer years of infirmity at the end, making all lives more productive.
THE CONSUMER WINS: Computer vendors such as Dell and Gateway are moving quickly into consumer devices. You can buy that huge LCD television from Dell, or pick up an entire home theater system from Gateway. The decade-old concept of convergence between consumer electronics and the computer industry is finally showing life, but with the computer still at its heart. As 2003 ends, we are seeing the first double-digit growth rates for PC shipments since 2000.