, Staff Writer
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If it seems as if your paycheck is gone before you get it, you've got company. Spoiled by decades of low inflation and everyday low prices, U.S. consumers and businesses have been blindsided by sudden and dramatic prices increases -- in almost everything from milk to heating oil this year.Having anything left in the bank is a challenge for many, and with economists predicting even shakier times ahead, many consumers are wondering when the increases will level off."The jury's still out on where this tornado goes," said Missy Vatinet, who owns Cary's La Farm Bakery with her husband, Lionel. "We're definitely seeing it everywhere, in every item we're purchasing."Driving the unease is roaring price increases for the raw materials used in making much of what we consume.The overall price of U.S. commodities rose 3.1 percent from February to March. That's the largest single-month increase since August 1974 -- the month in which Gerald Ford took office after the resignation of Richard Nixon.The increases in some commodities are staggering. The price of corn is up 41 percent, including a surge of 14.5 percent in March.Eggs are 68.5 percent more expensive than a year ago. Then there's gas: Pump prices are up 25 percent from this time last year."Consumers are just out of money," said Tony Plath, finance professor in the UNC-Charlotte Belk College of Business. "This is the first time in 30 years the economy has been this seriously threatened."Budgeting for price increases this sharp and this widespread is a challenge for everyone, from the manager of the household budget to the chief financial officer of a billion-dollar corporation.Businesses are better able to control the price swings, because they can strike contracts to buy commodities at set prices, Plath said. Businesses can also stockpile supplies and build inflation costs into contracts."But that level of sophistication does not extend to households," he said. "The people who are going to be pasted are the households."Budgeting in unpredictable times is tough, said Steve Gaito, a certified financial planner in Raleigh.He suggested that households divide their expenses into necessities such as mortgage payments and discretionary purchases."You have to take a hard look at your discretionary expenses and say, 'Do I absolutely have to do this now?' " he said.More than that, people should prioritize their expenses, said Marshall West, a credit counselor with Coastal Federal Credit Union in Raleigh."I encourage members to analyze very closely where the money goes," he said, and "downsize the expenses they have control over so they can pay the ones they can't control."For all the unpredictablilty, folks are doing what they can to get by.At La Farm Bakery, the Vatinets purchased a large load of flour in January, just before prices doubled. The flour should last them through the spring. Because the purchase came right after the busy holiday season, they were able to pay cash for it."We didn't have to factor in the borrowing -- this time," Missy Vatinet said. "We'll see what the future offers us."'Hit from every angle'Some varieties of hops that Big Boss Brewing Co. in Raleigh uses in its beer have more than doubled in price. Prices for glass bottles have gone up 9 percent, and a shortage of stainless steel has brewmaster Brad Wynn shipping kegs in from California or Canada.The brewery raised prices once this year by about 10 percent. Another increase may be on the way."There's nothing we can do," he said. "We are getting hit from every angle right now. ... It used to be that when you raised prices, you were making more money. We're just raising prices to keep up."Commodity prices have been rising for a few years, said Rob Handfield, an N.C. State University professor and director of the Supply Chain Resource Cooperative, which works with companies on problems in getting needed materials.Until now, companies have been successful in offsetting those increases, he said.But "fuel has impacted everything," Handfield said. "We had droughts and bad weather. It was sort of a perfect storm of all these different factors combined."World demands moreAdding to the strain: This round of inflation seems longer-lasting compared with recent periods of rising prices that were tied more directly to weather or other supply interruptions.Growing middle-class populations in countries such as India and China are goosing demand for commodities worldwide. That global growth, economists say, will offset any weakness in the U.S."All estimates are that it will probably continue for awhile," Handfield said.Historically, we have had periods with even greater inflation, said N.C. State economist Michael Walden."The '70s or '80s had double-digit inflation," he said. "In the late '80s, we had 6 percent inflation. ... We have gotten spoiled this decade with very low inflation rates."People are reacting strongly this time around because the inflation is affecting the prices of essentials, Walden said."You're typically more sensitive to price increases for things that you buy frequently. And most people buy gas once a week and food once a week," he said. "Clothing prices are going down. Electronics. Computers. But you don't buy those things every day."But as long as gas prices remain high, consumers should expect higher prices, Handfield said."It's quite possible we'll see $100-plus barrel gasoline for the next five years," he said.Creeping inflationBusinesses such as Catering Works of Raleigh have found ways to reduce costs.The company has taken a hit from the high price of gas, the rising cost of food and a 10 percent to 15 percent annual price increase for the 1,500 pieces of plasticware it uses every day."It's just been kind of creeping," said Lorin Laxton, who owns the business with her sister.The company is grouping deliveries to save gas and has also added a $2 gas surcharge to deliveries.Catering Works also is switching to plates and utensils made from corn and potato. Not only are they better for the environment, but they are about 15 percent cheaper.And in buying food, the company is looking for more locally grown options and adjusting the estimates it gives clients to reflect its higher costs. But even that isn't foolproof, because large events are often planned a year or more in advance, Laxton said."If it's between $5 and $10 a pound, we may just say: Let's price it at $8 a pound and hope for the best," she said. "But then there's suddenly a tomato shortage in Peru."
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