In Iraq, hope begins to stir

But positive signs come with many caveats

BAGHDAD -- Signs are emerging that Iraq has reached a turning point. Violence is down, armed extremists are in disarray, government confidence is rising and sectarian communities are gearing up for a battle at the polls rather than slaughter in the streets.

Those positive signs are attracting little attention in the United States. The war-weary public is focused on the American presidential contest and skeptical of talk of success after so many years of unfounded optimism by the war's supporters.

Unquestionably, the security and political situation in Iraq is fragile. U.S. commanders warn repeatedly that security gains are reversible.

Still, Iraq is by almost any measure safer today than at any time in the past three years. Fears that the country will disintegrate have receded, though they have not disappeared.

The wave of sectarian massacres that pushed the country to the brink of all-out civil war in 2006 has calmed.

Shiite-Sunni reprisal killings still occur. But gangs of Sunni and Shiite death squads no longer roam the streets at night with impunity, seeking out victims from the rival religious community.

Many Sunni insurgents have stopped fighting and turned against al-Qaida in Iraq. Those Sunni groups -- loosely organized and still armed -- could resume the fight if the Shiite-dominated national leadership fails to deliver on promises of economic help and a share of power. And critics believe U.S. support for such groups, known collectively as "awakening councils," could set the stage for future conflict. But for now, they are helping to keep violence down.

In another promising development, Sunnis who once shunned politics are gearing up to contest provincial elections this fall. And Shiite militiamen are reeling after military setbacks in Basrah and Baghdad's Sadr City districts this spring.

Despite the signs of progress, recent opinion surveys show that more than 60 percent of the American public opposes the war and believes it will end badly.

Democrats have lashed out at presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain for saying that when American troops leave Iraq is "not too important."

Some analysts also question whether the limited political accommodation among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds can be sustained if America withdraws its forces quickly. Iran's interest in using Shiite extremists to stir up trouble is another question mark.

Fear still in the air

With so many uncertainties, many Iraqis themselves fear the relative calm won't last -- even though monthly death tolls have been declining since the middle of last year.

"This relative calm is the calm before the storm," said Mohammed al-Sheikhli, director of the Transitional Justice Research Center in Baghdad. "The worst violence is not over, because the calm may collapse any moment."

That may prove true. Most of the root causes of the war -- notably the power struggle between Sunnis and Shiites-- remain unresolved.

U.S. troops have managed to suppress the conflict in Baghdad, maintaining an uncertain calm behind massive networks of blast walls that separate rival communities.

Political progress has lagged far behind security gains, some of them made at the risk of sowing the seeds of future conflict.

Fear and mistrust lie just beneath the surface.

"My Shiite neighbors were very good. They told me to leave because the militias would kill me," said Firas Ahmed, 27, who fled Baghdad for the mostly Sunni city of Tikrit. "Despite the improvement in security in Baghdad, I cannot go back because I'm afraid the situation might deteriorate suddenly."