Russia pushes into Georgian territory

WASHINGTON -- Russian troops stepped up their advance into Georgian territory on Monday, attempting to turn back the clock to the days when Moscow held uncontested sway over what it considers its "near abroad," and arousing increasing alarm among Western leaders.

The Georgian government abandoned Gori and ordered its troops to fall back to defend against a possible drive on Tbilisi, the capital, 40 miles away The Washington Post reported. In scenes of chaos, retreating Georgian army trucks shared the highway to the capital with cars and pickups loaded with frightened civilians.

Georgian and Russian officials confirmed that Russian soldiers took over the western city of Senaki and its base, about 25 miles from Abkhazia, a disputed separatist zone where Russia has been massing troops in recent days, the Post reported.

The seizure of Senaki effectively opened a second front, raising Georgian fears of a full-scale invasion or an attempt to oust the country's pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili.

Even as they prepared to convene an emergency meeting of NATO on Tuesday and President Bush denounced the Russian actions in the strongest terms to date, the United States and its European allies faced tough choices over how to push back. They seemed uncertain how to adjust to a new geopolitical game that threatened to undermine two decades of democratic gains in countries that were once part of the Soviet sphere.

Bush, little more than an hour after returning to Washington from the Olympic Games in Beijing, bluntly warned Russia that its military operations were damaging its reputation and were "unacceptable in the 21st century."

Administration officials said military options were almost certainly off the table. But the United States airlifted Georgian troops stationed in Iraq back home, answering a plea from the Georgian government and prompting a sharp response from Russia. Washington could also press to ostracize Moscow on the international stage, perhaps by kicking it out of the Group of 8 industrialized nations.

No carrots, no sticks

Yet there was no indication that Western powers could exercise much leverage over Russia if it chooses to ignore their warnings. The country is enjoying windfall profits from oil exports and seems determined to reassert influence over Georgia and Ukraine, while sending a clear signal to former satellite states that they should be wary of an overly cozy political and military alliance with the United States.

George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical risk analysis company, said, "The Russians feel they have been treated like dirt by the world for the last 20 years. Now they're back."

Few foreign policy experts believe that Russia can ever recapture its days of communist glory, global intimidation and military might. The world has changed, and growing global powers like China and India will make a return to the Cold War impossible.

A newer world order

But there is a growing belief in European capitals and in Washington that the return of Russia could mean a distinct redrawing of the Eurasian map, with Europe and the United States giving up on attempts to integrate former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia into the Western orbit.

And the return of Russia could mean an end to already dwindling U.S. and European hopes of bringing Russia along eventually as an ally of the West. At best, Russia would never be trusted; at worst, it would be seen as an adversary.

Many foreign policy experts say that part of the reason why Russia responded so forcefully to Georgia's attempt to take back South Ossetia is because the United States and Europe had been asserting themselves in Russia's backyard, alienating Moscow by supporting Kosovo's bid for independence.

Beyond that, Russia has also been angry about American plans to put a missile defense system in Poland and by American moves to encourage Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. "The combination is that the overall means with which we've dealt with the Russians over the last two years have painted them into a corner so that it's difficult for them not to see us as hostile," said Michael Greig, conflict management specialist at the University of North Texas.

But the problem has become the response: Russia has now pushed back hard, and the United States, bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and fretting about Iran, is unlikely to take on Russia over the matter of Georgia. Russia has shown that it wants to rule its own backyard, said Friedman of Stratfor.

"All this basically means that Russia emerges as a great power," Friedman said. "Not a global power like it used to be, but a power that has to be taken very seriously."