Right now, North Carolina is better positioned than most of the country, and the Triangle is in better shape than the state. But the slowdown is largely driven by consumers, abetted by an upheaval in housing plus rising energy and other costs.

If recession strikes, the most intense pain likely will be felt in retail, restaurants, construction and real estate -- the very sectors where a growing number of North Carolinians work.

Since the recession in 2001, those industries have added about 131,000 jobs in North Carolina. Collectively, their rolls have grown almost twice as fast as total employment in the state. And they account for about 25 percent of Triangle jobs.

"You're going to see a bloodbath," said George McNeill, who owns the Pharaoh's restaurant chain in Raleigh. He has put expansion on hold and expects little or no growth for the next year.

Economists are divided on whether a recession will occur. If it does, this area could be spared the worst.

In the Triangle, unemployment has stayed below the state average. And North Carolina itself is among 13 states with the healthiest economies, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

What's more, the housing market has benefited from population gains. While figures point to a slowdown both in North Carolina and the Triangle -- sales of existing homes in this region declined last year for the first time in five -- it has been more muted than in other states and markets.

"North Carolina has entered this with more growth and momentum than the rest of the country," said Matt Martin, an economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. "The U.S., conceivably, could go into recession and North Carolina may not."

A domino effect

The last recession lasted eight months and deeply scarred the Triangle.

During that period, businesses slashed technology spending and prompted large employers such as Nortel Networks, Cisco Systems and MCI, now a division of Verizon, to eliminate thousands of jobs. That caused shockwaves in this region that outlasted the downturn. In 2002, for instance, Triangle foreclosure filings increased 42 percent. In 2003, they jumped another 28 percent.

Meanwhile, the state's manufacturing sector was thrown into chaos as imports increased.

It took North Carolina almost five years -- from March 2001 to January 2006 -- to push unemployment back below 5 percent.

This time, manufacturing, which still accounts for a fifth of the state's economy, is better positioned. The dollar is the weakest in years against foreign currencies, and U.S.-made goods are cheaper than those produced in some other countries.

That has helped spark an uptick in exports. Business investment, too, has stayed solid.

The question is: Will the trends continue?

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, but consumer confidence dropped sharply in January, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. If business executives see a prolonged decline, they might delay equipment upgrades or expansions. That would hurt job growth and exacerbate economic problems.

Executives with Raleigh-based Global Software, which sells computer programs to businesses, do not foresee a slackoff.

"We're full steam ahead," said Spencer Kupferman, vice president of corporate affairs at the 80-employee company. Sales rose 20 percent last year, and he expects the same in 2008.

The company expects to add four workers within the next two months, in keeping with a broader trend. As of December, technology employers in the state had almost 4,000 open positions, according to the N.C. Technology Association, underscoring the health of business spending.

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