BANGKOK, THAILAND - The deadly cyclone that ripped into Myanmar could threaten the stranglehold on power of the country's ruling generals, becoming a force for change more powerful than huge pro-democracy demonstrations and international sanctions.

Few people think revolution is in the air, not while battered survivors are still burying the thousands of dead.

By an accident of timing, the cyclone hit just a week before Saturday's referendum on a new constitution. The junta hopes its proposed charter passes smoothly despite opposition from feisty democracy activists. But now it may face angry citizens in no mood to approve anything the government likes, even though the vote has been postponed in some areas hit by the storm.

No matter what happens in the referendum, the higher the storm's death toll climbs -- and the less effective the government's relief effort proves -- the bigger the potential for undermining the military's mandate to rule.

People in the region are notably superstitious, and the bad aura surrounding a tragedy often attaches itself to their governments. Rulers are considered responsible for natural conditions, and a disaster can be viewed as a sign that officials have lost the "mandate of heaven."

Fears of outside help

Myanmar's generals have long ruled by fear, especially since thousands died when the army crushed democracy demonstrations in 1988. The lesson was reinforced last fall when new democracy protests led by Buddhist monks were suppressed, with at least 31 people killed and thousands arrested.

In contrast to the regime's decisive response to any hint of political opposition, it has been laggard in getting help to the cyclone victims.

While the military and other government authorities kept a low profile Monday in the storm-battered streets of the capital, civilians and Buddhist monks banded together, wielding axes and knives to clear roads of tree trunks and branches torn down by the cyclone's 120 mph winds.

The need for a major relief effort poses a dilemma for the junta: how much assistance to accept from abroad.

Allowing a major influx of foreigners carries risks, injecting unwanted outside influence and giving the relief workers rather than the junta credit for a recovery. But keeping out international aid would focus blame squarely on the military should it fail to restore peoples' livelihoods.

The most extreme change potentially could come from within the military itself, providing an opening for more moderate officers to expand their influence if relief failures discredit the hard-line leaders at the top.

Dr. Alpaslan Ozerdem of the Post-war Reconstruction and Development Unit of England's University of York noted that the sudden devastation of a natural disaster can unleash "a huge anger from the public for the inadequacies of the state."

"The image of the state as a paternal figure -- a heavy handed protector -- collapses spectacularly," Ozerdem said.