The reason: The university will admit more students.

Last fall, the average SAT score of the 6,993 students accepted to UNC-CH was 1,337. Nearly 3,900 enrolled.

By the time total enrollment tops 33,000 -- most likely at some point in the next 10 years -- the average SAT score of an admitted class is expected to drop to 1,327, according to a report released Thursday by a higher education consultant.

That matters, said Steve Farmer, the university's undergraduate admissions director, because the institutions with which UNC-CH competes for students won't have the same struggle.

"A 10-point drop in a class this size is significant," Farmer said Thursday morning during a meeting of the university's board of trustees.

UNC-CH has long taken a measured approach to enrollment growth, increasing its freshman class size at a much slower rate than many other state universities. But a new mandate from the UNC system, which expects 80,000 additional students to enroll at its 16 university campuses in the next decade, has UNC-CH leaders looking for ways to accommodate extra growth.

The state will see a major demographic shift in high school graduates, according to the study. The number of Hispanic public high school graduates will increase 377 percent, while the Asian-American high school graduate population will jump 72 percent.

The number of African-American high school graduates will increase just slightly -- 9 percent -- and the number of white graduates will remain essentially flat, according to the report.

As UNC-CH grows, it must improve the undergraduate experience, Farmer told trustees. Additional merit scholarships and other improvements would help as the university attempts to maintain its buzz as a top public institution.

"If students think we're good, and if other students tell them they'll get a fair shake here and have a good experience, we'll be competitive," Farmer said.

The state's growth is part of the university's problem. It will draw to North Carolina more recruiters from elite universities throughout the Northeast and other regions with stagnant or declining populations, said Ben Edwards, managing partner with Art & Science Group, which conducted the study.