State barely in Fay's 'cone of possibilities'

Tropical Storm Fay is likely to bypass most of North Carolina, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. But a small western section of the state does fall within the "cone of possibilities."

"For years people concentrated on the black line," showing a hurricane's predicted path, said Gail Hartfield, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Raleigh.

Forecasters now like to present an ice-cream-cone-shaped swath that gives a more accurate picture of what they know and don't know.

"The cone of possibilities basically conveys the sense of uncertainty that's inherent in these systems," Hartfield said.

A five-day tracking map shows the storm's center skirting the eastern coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, then heading westward into Georgia and Alabama on Friday and through the weekend. But the cone of possible paths takes in the western tip of North Carolina.

A lurking high pressure system to our north is expected to suppress Fay, holding it to the south and slowing its northward movement. But much remains unknown, including the possibility that storm could strengthen over the Atlantic.

Many had hoped that the storm would bring relief to the intense drought over the western part of the state.

To see the cone of possibilities for Tropical Storm Fay, go to Tropical Storm Fay.