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Latest polls show close races ... or do they?

- Staff Writers

Published: Mon, Sep. 22, 2008 12:30AM

Modified Mon, Sep. 22, 2008 05:37AM

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The major statewide races remained close in new polls released last week.

A CNN/Time poll showed John McCain and Barack Obama essentially tied in the race for North Carolina's electoral votes, although other recent polls have showed McCain with a much wider lead.

McCain is viewed slightly more favorably, however.

A survey by the Elon University Poll found that 54 percent of North Carolinians had a favorable impression of McCain, while only 37 percent felt the same way about Obama.

McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, was viewed favorably by 49 percent of North Carolinians, while Obama's, Joe Biden, was held in the same light by 41 percent.

The same poll also had bad news for U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed were dissatisfied with Dole -- a jump of 22 percentage points from an Elon poll in April.

But Democratic opponent Kay Hagan can't celebrate yet. She and Dole were tied at 35 percent when the question was which candidate people liked.

The poll of 411 adults was conducted Sept. 15-18. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Unlike other polls, Elon's survey included some cell phone users, but it did not screen for registered voters or likely voters. That makes it much less useful when looking at who might actually win on Election Day.

Politicians enlist in truth squad

U.S. Reps. Sue Myrick and Virginia Foxx are on the truth squad.

The North Carolina Republicans are signature members of the Palin Truth Squad, a committee set up by Republican presidential candidate John McCain to defend his running mate. The 19-member national group is made up entirely of women, a dozen of whom are U.S. representatives.

One quick truth worth squadding: The campaign announcement from earlier this month identifies Myrick as a representative from Florida.

Etheridge bill tightens oil rules

The U.S. House passed a bill last week that tries to crack down on excessive speculation in the oil futures market.

The bill was introduced by U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, a Lillington Democrat. He is chairman of the Agriculture subcommittee that has oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The bill would require the hiring of 100 new regulators, force transparency in some trading and close a loophole to require more regulation from overseas trades.

The bill, which passed 283-183, now goes on to the U.S. Senate.

Of North Carolina's delegation, all the Democrats, along with Republicans Walter Jones and Robin Hayes, supported the bill. The state's four other Republicans voted "no."

'Something is going on' here

The Fix has moved North Carolina's Senate race up.

After ranking it 10th in his regular listing of competitive Senate races, Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza moved it to eighth place last week.

"Something is going on in once reliably Republican North Carolina," Cillizza wrote. "Barack Obama is running even (or close to it) with McCain in a series of recent polls, and Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) is suddenly in serious trouble against state Sen. Kay Hagan (D)."

Cillizza argues that an extensive ad campaign by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee could make a difference in the U.S. Senate race.

"They are hammering Dole relentlessly and have been for some time," he wrote. "Can Dole find another gear? If she doesn't, this could be the surprise upset of the cycle."

Not all Louisiana pols are bad

Pat McCrory clarified his criticism of Louisiana last week.

In speeches and debates, the Republican gubernatorial candidate has compared recent scandals in North Carolina state politics to Louisiana.

"I want to make sure we're not like Louisiana," he said at a WTVD debate in mid-August. "I want to bring back good government to North Carolina. And that starts at the executive branch right here in Raleigh."

But last week, McCrory rode on a bus tour with former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer. Coincidentally or not, he amended his speech line that day during a gubernatorial forum on ethics.

He spoke about an "ethical breakdown" in state government over the past eight years, saying they "more resemble Huey Long Louisiana politics than the good government we've always been proud of."

Long was governor and senator in Louisiana in the 1920s and 1930s; Roemer was governor in the late 1980s and early 1990s, winning office on a reform platform.

By staff writers Ryan Teague Beckwith and Barbara Barrett. ryan.teague.beckwith@newsobserver.com or (919) 836-4944

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