Warming may mean N.C. losses

Report warns of danger to coastal property values

North Carolina stands to lose billions of dollars from declines in coastal real estate values, tourism, crops and clean water if climate change is not stemmed, a new economic report released Wednesday suggests.

The report, by the University of Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental Research, notes that North Carolina, by virtue of its location on the East Coast and its long, flat coastline, is among the more vulnerable states to climate change.

"We have often looked at what it would cost us to do something about climate change, and throw up our hands that the cost is too high," said Matthias Ruth, director of the center at the University of Maryland. "What these studies do is look at the other side of the equation -- quantify what it would cost us if we didn't do something about climate change. We already know we are talking about billions of dollars of impact."

Scientists predict that the buildup of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere will lead to higher global temperatures, though the rate and extent of change remains a topic of debate. A panel of international scientists projects that polar ice will melt, resulting in seas rising 7 to 30 inches by 2100.

Rising sea levels might be particularly disastrous to coastal North Carolina, as some sections of the coast are slowly sinking, magnifying the effects of rising seas. The report said an 18-inch rise in sea level by 2080 would result in a loss of $2.8 billion for residential and commercial property value in New Hanover, Dare, Carteret and Bertie counties.

Coastal areas also are likely to experience shortages of potable water because of flooding and saltwater infiltration into fresh groundwater supplies, the report says. More than half of the state's population depends on groundwater for drinking water. Increased severity of droughts in the future could put an even greater strain on water systems in North Carolina.

The study compiles information from a number of other published studies.

John Whitehead, a professor of economics at Appalachian State University who focuses on environmental economics, concurred that North Carolina is one of the states that would suffer serious damage as sea levels rise.

"One concern I would have is the breadth of the study," Whitehead said. "When you are reviewing other people's work, there are a lot of details that it's difficult to capture in a synthesis study like they have. It's hard to present all that without misleading, whether you intend to or not."