N.C. seat in Senate a brief job

A U.S. Senate seat representing North Carolina is looking like an increasingly rickety political perch these days.

Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's loss to Democratic challenger Kay Hagan is only the most recent failure of an incumbent to win a second term.

North Carolina senators have been falling like bowling pins. In the past 36 years, only Republican Jesse Helms has held onto his Senate seat. And Helms, despite huge campaign war chests, nearly always struggled to win.

Democratic Sen. B. Everett Jordan lost his re-election bid in 1972, Democrat Robert Morgan lost in 1980, Democrat Terry Sanford lost in 1992, Republican Lauch Faircloth lost in 1998, and now Dole.

Democrat John Edwards did not seek a second term in 2004, and Republican John East died in office in 1986. In both cases, the seat switched parties.

All this suggests that senators from North Carolina should rent, rather than buy, a house in Washington.

After Hagan takes office, North Carolina's senior senator will be Richard Burr of Winston-Salem, elected in 2004. This will give North Carolina the least experienced set of senators in the country, unless Democrat Al Franken knocks off Republican Sen. Norm Coleman in a close race in Minnesota.

Burr, who faces re-election in 2010, is looking nervously over his shoulder.

Rumored to be considering the race are Attorney General Roy Cooper and state Treasurer Richard Moore, both Democrats.

Burr has garnered a lot of respect across the state. He is smart enough to master complex issues such as medicine and bioterrorism; he returns frequently to North Carolina; and, although he may be as conservative as Helms, Burr has an inclusive style, not a polarizing one.

Like Dole, Burr was recruited by the Bush White House; he ran for the Senate seat held by Edwards. But Burr will be seeking re-election two years into the Obama administration and, unlike Dole, he will not have President Bush hanging around his neck.

It will also be more difficult to tie him to Washington. Although Dole is North Carolina bred and born, she spent her adult life in D.C. as half of a Washington power couple. She is married to former Senate majority leader Bob Dole.

But Burr will have some challenges. He will be running in a year when the president is not on the ballot. Traditionally, that is when Democratic Senate candidates do best. Before Hagan, Democrats in recent decades won the Senate seat only in nonpresidential years.

To a certain extent, Burr has served in Dole's shadow.

He is not well known across the state, according to public opinion polls. A survey last summer by Public Policy Polling found Burr's approval rating was 27 percent and his disapproval rating 26 percent, with 46 percent not having an opinion.

And of course, no one has successfully defended the Senate seat now held by Burr since Democrat Sam Ervin Jr. did it in 1968.

The political lives of North Carolina senators may be short. But things could be worse.

In the post-World War II era, being a North Carolina senator was a death sentence. Dying in office were Sens. Josiah Bailey in 1946, Melville Broughton in 1948, Willis Smith in 1953, Clyde Hoey in 1954, and Kerr Scott in 1958.

At least most of the recent senators walked away from the Senate under their own power.