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"There's a lot of reasons why numbers between two different studies could vary," said Andrew Brod, the Greensboro professor. "A lot depends on the judgments, decisions and assumptions made by the analyst."

So far, Dell has created 1,100 full-time jobs at the factory and is ahead of schedule on hiring plans, said Donna Oldham, a company spokeswoman. She could not say how many jobs have been created by suppliers.

Economic developers are interested in having studies done in advance, "but nobody is interested" afterward, Brod said. If the projected benefits don't prove true, "then they might wish they hadn't spent the money" on a report.

The Commerce Department analysis of Google only goes out 12 years because that's the length of the grant that it awarded the company. It shows an estimated 1,615 construction jobs this year as workers begin building the company's new facility.

In public comments, Google officials have said they expect only about 400 on site.

Further complicating the analysis of Google are the tax breaks. Their actual value depends on how much Google invests. The total could approach $260 million over 30 years, but it will be less if Google makes a smaller investment, and higher if the company invests more.

Value of tax breaks

One Google executive said estimating the tax breaks was unnecessary. Governments are not collecting tax revenue from Google now, he argued, and if they didn't waive its tax bill the company would have gone elsewhere. So state and local leaders don't lose anything once Google comes.

The value of the tax breaks "really is a hypothetical," Rhett Weiss, a Google executive, wrote in a May e-mail message to Commerce General Counsel Don Hobart.

Unlike upfront cash payments, tax breaks also have a self-regulating mechanism: companies only get the benefit if they invest.

Even so, critics say that such perks are unfair because they transfer costs to other taxpayers.

"There's a certain level of services that any business will consume," said Clower, the Texas professor. In effect, he said, such tax breaks tell other businesses and individuals, "We want to get Google and we like Google's name, so you have to pay for it."

He prefers states and communities include benchmarks and penalties so that they can ensure that the benefits outweigh the costs.

Some safeguards exist

Lenoir and Caldwell officials did not include such provisions. Without them, Google could invest a lot, get the tax breaks, and create far fewer jobs, Clower said.

The state included safeguards. To get an exemption on sales taxes, Google must invest at least $250 million within five years and use the equipment and electricity. If it doesn't, it forfeits the benefit and must repay all taxes with interest.

Google gets the $4.8 million grant approved by the Commerce Department only if it meets interim steps. It must create at least 168 jobs by 2011 with average annual salaries of about $43,500 and invest $480 million.

Caldwell County officials have said that the Google project demands a broader view and that they wouldn't have signed on to a bad deal.

The community has struggled to rebound from thousands of layoffs as furniture, textile and other manufacturing plants closed.

County takes a chance

In recent years, it has consistently had one of the highest unemployment rates in the state. In December, the jobless rate, unadjusted for seasonal effects, was 8.4 percent compared with 4.7 percent statewide.

Google, those local officials contend, will help the community move into a new era. It's likely to draw higher-paid workers -- the average salary of Google employees is expected to be $48,000 a year -- new retailers and other employers that will add to the tax base.

While county and city leaders waived 100 percent of Google's business property taxes, they'll still get 20 percent of its real estate taxes. Google is expected to become the biggest buyer of water from the city and it will pay other taxes, such as utility franchise fees.

"I'll talk about incentives all anybody wants to," Lenoir Mayor David Barlow told the Lenoir News-Topic last week. "Understand that the potential benefits could go from here on."

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