Double threat

High winds and floods make hurricanes dangerous and sometimes deadly. They can also hit North Carolinians financially, wrecking homes and businesses and pushing up gas prices

MOREHEAD CITY -- The storm-savvy folks of coastal Carteret County tend to take nature's big blows in stride and aren't too surprised to learn of a forecast that pegs them with the nation's highest probability of getting smacked by hurricane-force winds this year.

On the opening day of what is predicted to be an active and potentially deadly hurricane season, they're worried most by two things: a direct hit that destroys homes and businesses and claims lives; and the indirect impact of a faraway storm that causes gasoline prices to spike, scaring away the summer tourist trade.

Capt. Howard Day, a charter boat skipper out of Morehead City, said the high gas prices of spring have already hurt his business by keeping away retirees who used to regularly hire his 28-foot craft, Loaf-A-Long. Predictions of high winds and higher gas prices are worrisome, but won't keep Day from leaving the dock.

"It's like farming," he said. "You've got to get as much out of the garden as you can while the sun is shining."

Hurricane researchers say Day and other Carteret residents are smart to factor both the backyard and back pocket threats from hurricanes. It's something North Carolinians far from the coast should also consider, particularly if a big hurricane veers into the Gulf of Mexico, home to roughly 40 percent of America's oil refinery capacity and 30 percent of the nation's domestic oil production.

"That would be bad news," said Jayne Cannon, spokeswoman for the AAA Carolinas auto club. "Whenever there's a backdrop of natural disasters, you're going to see gasoline prices rise."

When Hurricane Katrina struck near New Orleans in late August 2005, the storm damaged off-shore oil and natural gas rigs in the Gulf and shut off electricity that powered refineries and pipelines that pump gasoline to the rest of the country, including North Carolina.

As a result, the average price of regular-grade gas statewide jumped more than 39 percent to $3.10 a gallon in early September, just a few days after the monster hurricane savaged Louisiana and Mississippi.

Even a mild hurricane in the Gulf will disrupt production as oil companies evacuate offshore rigs and refineries, said Chuck Watson, a private hurricane analyst from Savannah, Ga., and co-author of a University of Central Florida forecast that puts Carteret County in the bull's-eye of the 2007 storm season.

Another Katrina would cause wider destruction and send gasoline prices skyrocketing.

"You could easily spike up gas to $5 or $6 a gallon if you get a big storm in the Gulf," said Watson.

In partnership with UCF statistics professor Mark Johnson, Watson has studied 135 years of hurricane data. Every year with conditions similar to those expected this season was marked by a big Gulf storm that blew through a coastal area pockmarked with offshore rigs and onshore refineries and pipelines.

"History's not terribly comforting," he said.

Unlike other hurricane forecasters who predict the number of named storms and tally those that will strike the United States, Watson and Johnson run historic storm data and current climate conditions through computer models, spinning out probabilities of hurricane-force winds striking 852 counties along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

"It's a fundamentally different approach -- we don't care how many storms there are," said Watson, whose clients include insurance companies, oil and natural gas concerns and utilities. "It's the selfish forecast. I don't care how many storms there are, I just want to know whether my house is going to get hit."