Fourteen of the 17 beaches from Brunswick County to Carteret County could be eroded away by 2080, leaving beachgoers no place to plant their umbrellas and translating into a loss of $3.9 billion, researchers reported Wednesday.

For the first time, researchers have put a dollar estimate on lost tourism, recreation and property damage in North Carolina from the projected impact of climate change. The bipartisan National Commission on Energy Policy funded the study.

Economists at three North Carolina universities and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany said the study showed that as climate change causes submersion of coastal areas and increased erosion, North Carolina will endure billions of dollars in property damage, lost tourism and disruption to coastal businesses.

"Coastal North Carolina has been identified as one of the United States' most vulnerable regions to climate change," said Ben Poulter, a Duke University-trained landscape ecologist at the Potsdam Institute.

Scientists predict that the buildup of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere will lead to higher global temperatures, though the rate and extent of change remains a topic of debate. A panel of international scientists projects that polar ice will melt, resulting in seas rising 7 to 30 inches by 2100.

More than 2,000 square miles of Eastern North Carolina is no more than 3 feet above sea level, putting it at risk of being submerged, the researchers said.

"Even a relatively small rise -- a 1-foot rise -- will have a long reach into the interior of North Carolina," said John Whitehead, an economist at Appalachian State University and co-author of the study. "That will affect a lot of property."

Real estate

To assess impacts on real estate values, the study focused on New Hanover, Dare, Carteret and Bertie counties for a cross-section of the state's coast. The counties included highly developed shoreline and more rural areas.

Okmyung "Paul" Bin, an economist at East Carolina University and co-author, said that increasing coastal development, coupled with soaring property values, has created greater vulnerability to sea level rise.

Bin projected losses of $6.9 billion in the four counties as land becomes permanently inundated. The most significant losses would hit the northern counties, where sea level rise is magnified by a natural process in which the land is gradually sinking. The estimated residential property value at risk in Dare County ranged from $242 million to $2.7 billion, Bin said.

He said that Dare would be most heavily affected, and that Carteret would also have have substantial impact. He said New Hanover and Bertie counties would see relatively small impacts.

Coastal industries

In addition, the scientists said coastal industries, including recreational fishing and beach tourism, would be hit hard by higher sea levels and hurricanes.

Len Pietrafesa, a professor of oceanic and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State University, who did not participate in the study, said the costs raised in the study need to be presented to the public and to policymakers.

"It's sort of a reality check to say this is what it's going to cost the state," said Pietrafesa, who added that he was not shocked by the numbers. "Can the state afford this? I believe it's a needed exercise to put the costs of maintaining or rebuilding coastal areas, which will be hit by storms, into the perspective of how we're going to be able to absorb these costs as a state and nation."

The study predicted that 17 recreational swimming beaches from Sunset Beach in Brunswick County to Atlantic Beach in Carteret County would narrow in the next 25 years, and 14 would no longer be usable for recreation by 2080. The study did not cover the state's northern beaches.

"Sea level rise is projected to totally eliminate a number of beaches in North Carolina, a number of barrier islands in North Carolina," Whitehead said.

As beaches narrow, Whitehead said, people would spend less time and money at the coast. He estimated that would cost $3.9 billion over the next 75 years.

The researchers assumed that climate change would also cause lower-category hurricanes to intensify, although that remains hotly debated. Some scientists have correlated warming oceans with more intense storms, while others say that hurricane cycles are not linked to global warming and occur naturally.

Hurricane losses

Chris Dumas, a UNC-Wilmington economist and co-author, estimated that business losses in New Hanover, Dare, Carteret and Bertie counties associated with more severe Category 3 hurricanes could rise by $34 million per storm by 2030. The researchers projected that hurricanes could cause $157 million in damages per storm by 2080.

Whitehead, of Appalachian State University, said he hoped the research would help policymakers understand the benefits and avoided costs of adopting policies to address climate change.

"Right now, it seems that people are focusing on the costs of addressing climate change," Whitehead said. "The benefits of implementing climate change policy would occur further down the road, which makes them easier to ignore or postpone.

"Our numbers are the cost of doing nothing or the benefit of doing something," Whitehead said.