RALEIGH - Drought's harshest hold now grips the Triangle and more than half of North Carolina's counties, increasing the likelihood of tougher conservation measures for homeowners and industry.

It also raises fears some communities will soon tap out their dwindling water supplies.

The latest weekly drought report released Thursday graphically illustrates deepening statewide dryness that plunged 47 additional counties from "extreme" to "exceptional" conditions, the worst of four categories. Those include Wake, Durham, Orange, Chatham and all but the easternmost sliver of Johnston County.

The drought's worst now touches the state's biggest metropolitan centers -- the Triangle, Charlotte and most of the Triad.

Local water managers, federal forecasters and state officials weren't surprised by the latest report. They say it's a sign of the accelerating impact of a summer of rainless skies and triple-digit heat. But some warned of tougher conservation measures in the face of a drought expected to last until February -- or longer.

"We're going to watch that lake, and if we see further problems we're going to ratchet down again," said Tim Donnelly, public works and utilities director for the town of Apex, which draws drinking water from Jordan Lake and shares a treatment plant with Cary.

Apex instituted mandatory conservation rules Monday that limit residents to three days of watering a week on an odd-even address schedule. But the town council has already authorized a tougher one-day watering limit if lake levels continue to plummet.

Raleigh officials face a grimmer outlook for a water supply relied on by the city and seven other Wake County towns, but are taking a wait-and-see attitude about tightening mandatory conservation measures. Falls Lake, the city's only water source, has only a 41 percent supply of water remaining.

If weather conditions remain dry and demand stays constant, that supply will run out by Jan. 23. But city officials appear to be banking on declining water demand and the eventual arrival of winter rain that traditionally replenishes streams, reservoirs and groundwater.

"I don't think anyone has said we will not get rain in the winter -- it's a matter of how much and whether we'll get a full reservoir or not," said City Manager Russell Allen.

But Ryan Boyles, the state's chief climatologist, said North Carolina's long-range outlook calls for a drier-than-normal winter -- a bad break for a state that has already passed through the height of the hurricane season and needs up to two feet of rain to break the drought.

"Are we going to get enough rain over the winter so we don't have this drought again in spring and summer?" Boyles asked. "We have the potential of being in even worse shape coming out of the chute next summer."

The city of Durham will enact stricter mandatory water restrictions Oct. 29 if there is no significant rainfall by then. The city will also reduce allowed lawn watering to Saturdays only on Oct. 15. City leaders hoped to reduce water usage by 30 percent when moderate mandates went into effect Sept. 21. But on Monday, City Manager Patrick Baker said water use had gone down only 12 percent.

Some water experts say Gov. Mike Easley needs to declare statewide mandatory water conservation. As it now stands, slightly more than 45 percent of North Carolina's residents live under mandatory conservation rules while the rest of the state follows either voluntary measures or no rules at all.

"I believe an exceptional drought requires exceptional measures, and I do believe statewide mandatory conservation should be implemented," said Bill Holman, former secretary of the state Department of Environment and Natural Resources and a senior fellow at Duke University's Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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