In Rocky Mount, officials expect to run out of water by Jan. 1 if no rain arrives. The town is hurrying to draft new water restrictions that would eventually call for businesses and institutions to cut their water use in half and require restaurants and schools to use paper plates.

"We've never seen anything like this before," said Wayne Hollowell, Rocky Mount's director of water resources. "We're in new territory right here, like many areas across the state."

In Siler City, Town Manager Joel Brower spends much of the day trying to secure water for his small town on the western edge of Chatham County. The town has been rationing for weeks and has begun drawing water from private lakes and ponds. The town's chicken plants have been hauling in water from private suppliers to keep operating.

"We're going to work hard to make sure doomsday doesn't come to Siler City," Brower said.

But defining when doomsday might arrive in the Triangle is a complicated calculation. While local water systems announce the number of days of water they have remaining, those figures are not necessarily a countdown to empty. Systems can turn to water with more sediment, and they can tap alternative sources.

Rocky Mount, for instance, is installing a connection to the town of Wilson, which has an ample supply of water. Those alternatives, however, cost money and may take time to put in place.

Raleigh has yet to develop a plan for rationing water, as the city is confident alternative sources could be found and officials are already pursuing creative ways to extend its supply.

But plans in Cary and Durham give a sense of how life would change when shortages get extreme.

Cary's plan separates water uses into three tiers, from least to most essential. Essential uses are classified as those needed to ensure fire protection, public health and safety, and the care and rehabilitation of patients. If an emergency were declared, Cary's residential customers would be allowed "such an amount of water as is necessary to sustain human life and the lives of domestic pets, and to maintain minimum standards of hygiene and sanitation."

Durham could also reach the point of rationing water and closing big businesses.

Vicki Westbrook, deputy water management director for Durham, is wary of describing what would happen at the rationing stage.

But in a worst-case scenario, she said, the city could close businesses and restrict the number of gallons a household can use. People could use water only for drinking, cooking and bathing. Hospitals and firefighters would have access to water.

"We don't want to use scare tactics to force the behavior," Westbrook said.

Some major companies in Research Triangle Park are developing plans for continuing operations if the drought reaches a crisis.

Many have turned up the temperatures in their plants and offices so the chiller plants, the largest water consumers on site, don't have to pull as many gallons.

At GlaxoSmithKline, a response team is developing a plan for a worst-case scenario, said Robert Sutton, a spokesman, but he would not give details. It could be that some drug manufacturing activities would be moved to other sites, Sutton said.

"We're looking at every possibility," Sutton said. "We are fortunate that GSK has more than one site."

Raleigh has no next step beyond its Stage 2 water restrictions, which eliminate just about all residential and commercial outdoor watering. If the drought were to continue, the city would have to ration water; the City Council would work out and approve the details.

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