Stunned property owners: No way

Brian Phillips was stunned when he checked the updated property assessment for his family's home in western Wake County.

Since the last revaluation in 2000, the total value for his three acres and two-story house had shot up about 140 percent to $686,900. But what really jolted Phillips was the value of his three acres. It had jumped more than 640 percent to $416,250.

"I bought this and built it to live on it for my life," said Phillips, an engineer. "I don't want to have to sell it because I can't afford the taxes."

The sticker shock comes on top of a national housing crisis and a jittery market. Some homeowners say they could never sell their property for the amount Wake County says it's worth. Tax assessors say they can.

Still, Phillips has looked at sales in his neighborhood and can't find anything comparable to the figure listed in the county's new assessment of his property.

"It's a ridiculous number," he said.

Area market strong

Despite homeowners' jitters, local real estate analysts and officials say that the new assessed values accurately reflect the market. Slowdowns in the national housing market haven't hit the Triangle as hard as other regions, they say.

Emmett Curl, Wake County's revenue director, said people are selling their homes for a little bit more than the new assessed value, according to sales figures for the past several months.

"Sales values are a little bit higher, and they are getting higher with each month that passes," Curl said.

Stacey P. Anfindsen, a residential real estate analyst with Birch Appraisal Group, said the sub-prime mortgage lending crisis has largely not affected Triangle home values.

Most Wake County homes in 2006 sold for 130 percent of the assessed value, according to data from the Wake County Revenue Department.

Home sales in Raleigh in 2006 were 150 percent of the assessed value, a sign that the local housing market remains robust, he said.

Still, others forecast gloomy times ahead for the state and the Triangle.

In North Carolina, foreclosure filings almost tripled from 1998 to 2006, from 16,630 to 45,512, according to court records. Next year, the state is estimated to have about 50,000 foreclosures, according to the N.C. Housing Coalition.

And, last week, the U.S. Conference of Mayors released a report forecasting that the housing crisis will translate to a 20 percent decline in economic growth in the Raleigh-Cary area next year.

"There's a lot of uncertainty in people's minds because of what is happening in the marketplace these days," said Phil Poe, chairman of the Five Points Citizen Advisory Council in Raleigh, which includes homeowners who saw some of the city's highest increases. "The numbers there -- can they be fully justified?"

Taxes likely steady

In Wake, the average property's value went up 43 percent, and the average residential property's value rose 38 percent. In Durham, it was 30 percent for the average property, 24 percent for residential.

That doesn't mean that the average property tax bill will increase that much.

The exact impact on tax bills is unclear, but counties and municipalities typically ratchet back tax rates so they are at or close to the amount that means they don't collect more money from property taxes because of the revaluation.

Many homeowners are especially shocked by the sharp increases in land values. Not since 1984, when the region was beginning to boom, did property owners see such large increases in land values, Curl said.

That year, average values for both buildings and land jumped 110 percent. But different forces are driving Wake's current 43 percent spike.