In Rocky Mount, officials expect to run out of water by Jan. 1 if no rain arrives. The town is hurrying to draft new water restrictions that would eventually call for businesses and institutions to cut their water use in half and require restaurants and schools to use paper plates.

"We've never seen anything like this before," said Wayne Hollowell, Rocky Mount's director of water resources. "We're in new territory right here, like many areas across the state."

In Siler City, Town Manager Joel Brower spends much of the day trying to secure water for his small town on the western edge of Chatham County. The town has been rationing for weeks and has begun drawing water from private lakes and ponds. The town's chicken plants have been hauling in water from private suppliers to keep operating.

"We're going to work hard to make sure doomsday doesn't come to Siler City," Brower said.

But defining when doomsday might arrive in the Triangle is a complicated calculation. While local water systems announce the number of days of water they have remaining, those figures are not necessarily a countdown to empty. Systems can turn to water with more sediment, and they can tap alternative sources.

Rocky Mount, for instance, is installing a connection to the town of Wilson, which has an ample supply of water. Those alternatives, however, cost money and may take time to put in place.

Raleigh has yet to develop a plan for rationing water, as the city is confident alternative sources could be found and officials are already pursuing creative ways to extend its supply.

But plans in Cary and Durham give a sense of how life would change when shortages get extreme.

Cary's plan separates water uses into three tiers, from least to most essential. Essential uses are classified as those needed to ensure fire protection, public health and safety, and the care and rehabilitation of patients. If an emergency were declared, Cary's residential customers would be allowed "such an amount of water as is necessary to sustain human life and the lives of domestic pets, and to maintain minimum standards of hygiene and sanitation."

Durham could also reach the point of rationing water and closing big businesses.

Vicki Westbrook, deputy water management director for Durham, is wary of describing what would happen at the rationing stage.

But in a worst-case scenario, she said, the city could close businesses and restrict the number of gallons a household can use. People could use water only for drinking, cooking and bathing. Hospitals and firefighters would have access to water.

"We don't want to use scare tactics to force the behavior," Westbrook said.

Some major companies in Research Triangle Park are developing plans for continuing operations if the drought reaches a crisis.

Many have turned up the temperatures in their plants and offices so the chiller plants, the largest water consumers on site, don't have to pull as many gallons.

At GlaxoSmithKline, a response team is developing a plan for a worst-case scenario, said Robert Sutton, a spokesman, but he would not give details. It could be that some drug manufacturing activities would be moved to other sites, Sutton said.

"We're looking at every possibility," Sutton said. "We are fortunate that GSK has more than one site."

Raleigh has no next step beyond its Stage 2 water restrictions, which eliminate just about all residential and commercial outdoor watering. If the drought were to continue, the city would have to ration water; the City Council would work out and approve the details.

Raleigh has asked the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers whether it can pump water from three lakes -- Benson, Johnson and Wheeler -- into the lower Neuse River to help preserve the drought-depleted Falls Lake reservoir. Such a move could extend Raleigh's water supply by six to eight weeks.

Terry Brown, water control manager at the Corps of Engineers' district office in Wilmington, said his office is reviewing Raleigh's request and expects to make a decision this week.

Woody Yonts, head of the state's Drought Management Advisory Council, said it is a mistake to delay water shortage planning until the crisis is imminent.

"When the bucket's almost empty and you're trying to come up with what's essential and nonessential, it's difficult," Yonts said. "Those are decisions that should have already been made."

Even if some officials aren't ready to discuss doomsday scenarios, an increasing number of residents are.

Fritz Klein, a biomedical engineer who lives in a neighborhood just north of Chapel Hill that uses well water, said he wonders whether there will come a point when residents are asked to evacuate.

"It adds stress," Klein said. "We don't seem to have a plan. Is it going to be like Katrina, that nobody paid attention? Is this another sleeper?"

Ralph Skordas, who lives in Zebulon, said he doesn't understand why officials aren't moving faster to minimize the use of water.

"What happens when people turn on their tap and there's no water?" Skordas, 70, said. "Is there anything that can be done?"

Figuring out how best to answer such questions can be tricky for public officials, said Dave Moreau, director of the N.C. Water Resources Research Institute.

"There's a fine balance about how much of that discussion should go on," he said. "There's a question of how much alarm you sound."

Moreau said the danger for governments is that they will be heavily criticized if they begin enforcing draconian measures without first discussing them with their customers.

No one expects water wars to break out, but the police could become more involved at a certain point.

Ed Kerwin, director of the Orange Water and Sewer Authority, has asked police in Chapel Hill, Carrboro and at UNC-Chapel Hill to look out for illegal watering and has ordered repeat offenders to have their water cut off.