The weather forecast for Thursday through Sunday is: Dry, wet, dry, wait and see.
The computer models that National Weather Service and other forecasters depend on to crunch numbers from weather stations just do not agree, at least not yet, on what may be in store for Sunday.
They agree on a wet Friday in the Triangle, though they disagree on how much rain will come. One predicts as much as an inch to 1.5 inches, the other much less.
Forecasting is a global process these days, and computers based in the United State and Europe see different things when they look at the limited data available about the portion of the atmosphere that will affect North Carolina by Sunday.
“The big forecast problem will be Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Large differences between the medium-range models continue,” the National Weather Service’s Raleigh office said Thursday morning in regular analysis of what weather systems appear likely to do.
The U.S.-based weather model suggests a mix of rain and maybe some snow Sunday in area west of the U.S. 1 corridor and all rain to the east, the weather service said.
The European model sees a low-pressure system staying farther south along the Atlantic coast Sunday and less chance of rain.
The European model changes as scientists restart it every 12 hours, however, the weather service said. It probably will continue doing that until more weather data is available Thursday night or Friday about the air mass moving our way, forecasters said.
“As a result, confidence remains low, especially with regard to the chances, timing and type of precipitation over the area,” the weather service said.