Victory from the ballot box

On Dec. 15, 2002, Iraq was ruled by Saddam Hussein, whose regime, by conservative estimates, killed an average of 100 people each and every day of his 24-year rule. Tomorrow, Dec. 15, 2005, an estimated 10 million free Iraqis will go to the polls to elect their own government under a constitution they ratified in October. Remarkable.

Still, I fear the world-changing significance of the Iraqi vote will be lost on many Americans. I've already braced myself for the inevitable belittling of an election that was unimaginable just three years ago. As I wrote last month, too many Americans are uncomfortable with the concept of victory. If these folks owned a sports team, "Refuse To Win" would be their slogan and Howard Dean would be their coach.

I can't bring myself to consider these people unpatriotic even though much of their irrational dissent validates the insurgents' view that their victory will be won in the court of American public opinion, not in the streets of Baghdad. To those who favor an immediate withdrawal of troops, regardless of the consequences on the ground, Iraq is a domestic political issue, not a front line of the international war on terror. The global significance of an Arab democracy and the human rights that would accrue to the Iraqi people matter little to those who admire Cindy Sheehan.

Unfortunately, much of the traditional American media has become part of the no-win crowd. Some have even become uncomfortable with the word "win." Pulitzer Prize-winning author Anne Applebaum wrote in The Washington Post that victory won't necessarily be a choice between democracy and Islamic fascism. She offered the Korean peninsula as an example. But Korea is an example of stalemate, not victory. [The Applebaum article is reprinted nearby.]

This week, Time Magazine columnist Joe Klein pokes fun at Duke University professor and National Security Council staffer Peter Feaver's conclusion that Americans will support the war in Iraq if they perceive it as winnable. Klein calls that conclusion cold-blooded. I call Feaver's analysis common sense.

Sadly, American journalism has a much bigger problem on its collective hand than being unable to envision America as a victorious nation. The profession's fixation on reporting bad news -- bombs and bombast -- has caused it to overlook the biggest story of this generation: the political and social transformation that's going on outside Baghdad's Green Zone. The Fourth Estate has forgotten that good news -- the growing capabilities of the Iraqi army, the influx of women into education, local government, the rebound of the economy -- is still news. The underplaying of stories that don't involve an explosion helps explain media surprise at the overwhelming optimism expressed by Iraqis in an extensive poll conducted by Oxford Research International and commissioned by an international consortium that included ABC News and Time Magazine.

Oxford found that 71 percent of the Iraqis polled said that things were very or quite good in their personal lives. And 64 percent said they expected life to be better in the next year. Like Americans, Iraqis had a more pessimistic view of their country's fortunes. More than half replied they thought the situation in Iraq was bad, but 69 percent expected social and economic circumstances to improve over the next 12 months.

The poll also shows Iraqis have confidence in nearly all things Iraqi. By and large, they credit their army, police, national and local governments for the improvements in their lives and prospects for a better future. They tend to blame everything bad on American and coalition forces -- a clear signal we've worn out our welcome.

That's not necessarily a bad thing, provided it doesn't mean precipitous withdrawal. The Iraqis appear to be more than ready to take hold of their own destiny.

Although I've been a big supporter of the war in Iraq, I've never been under the illusion that it could be won by killing every terrorist. The insurgency will die a natural death once Iraqis gain confidence their government can provide them a better life and future than what the terrorists can offer. That's why the insurgents are fighting so hard to prevent a legitimate, free and democratic Iraq. Come tomorrow, the Iraqi people will hand them their most crushing defeat.