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Only a small fraction of people who experience mental health disorders present a danger to others. But when one considers the scale at which our system is failing, it is clear that a new tragedy is only a matter of time; it's a statistical certainty.

The formula is simple: Take a population of 9,061,032 North Carolinians, of which approximately 356,000 adults have serious mental illnesses and 192,000 children have serious emotional disturbances. Next, systematically restrict access (either intentionally or unintentionally) to treatment for those who need it. The result equals tragedy on a massive scale.

We will never be able to prevent every tragedy, even with an excellent mental health system. But by restricting access to care for 550,000 of our most deserving and needy residents, we are stacking the odds against ourselves.

Health and Human Services Secretary Dempsey Benton has been called upon to salvage the system. He is by all accounts a capable administrator, and he has taken steps that show he means business. But with less than a year left in Gov. Mike Easley's administration, Benton will have to be a miracle worker to provide leadership that amounts to something more than too little, too late.

County officials have a rare opportunity to step in and do something that is fiscally responsible, morally right and politically popular. Will they stand by and wait for the state, the Local Management Entities or a private provider to replace the safety net while the system is in free fall? If so we may be in for a very hard landing.

(Mark Sullivan is executive director of the Mental Health Association in Orange County.)

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