Inheriting Iraq

The president-elect faces a testing time as he prepares plans for a measured withdrawal of U.S. troops

Barack Obama has often said that the United States must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. Now he'll get to show how careful, and effective, his plans for troop withdrawal really are.

Certainly, just three days after his election, Iraq is not yet Obama's problem, or his war. But events there may force the president-elect's hands.

One possibility, discussed yesterday on the Op-ed page by Robert D. Kaplan, is that the terrorist al-Qaida (what remains of it) and a hostile Iran will conspire to create an immediate "uptick" in violence in Iraq. Attacks "will be significant enough to muddy the results of the surge, and the president-elect, rather than respond vigorously, will be tempted to say 'I told you so' and thus win the Iraq debate with his Republican critics."

Kaplan (a correspondent for The Atlantic who is with the Center for a New American Security in Washington) says that faced with such an upturn in violence, Obama might argue for an even faster withdrawal than he's proposed up to now -- in Kaplan's persuasive view a terrible mistake, telegraphing weakness around the world.

Kaplan's scenario is a grim one, evoking memories of America's ill-handled exit from South Vietnam once public opinion had soured on that long and bloody war.

Obama's task, once he is president, will be to prevent a replay along the Tigris and Euphrates. The inevitable withdrawal -- the Bush administration, Iraq's increasingly nationalistic government and Obama all agree that withdrawal is coming, differing only on timing and scope -- cannot be careless. It will, of necessity, involve a big shift of military personnel. Americans may be surprised that more than 140,000 U.S. troops remain in Iraq -- not all that far off the surge's high water mark. Relative calm in Iraq has required a very heavy U.S. presence.

Meanwhile, talks over a "status of forces" agreement between Nouri al-Maliki's government and Washington go slowly. Among the issues is jurisdiction over Americans who commit crimes in Iraq. The U.S. view is that if a satisfactory agreement isn't reached -- unlikely -- our forces would have to accelerate their departure.

Iraqis, in the weeks that remain before Obama assumes office, have every reason to consolidate the gains for peace that have been made. Parliament must resolve tricky, postponed issues over sharing oil revenue, and ethnic representation. Security forces need more beefing up to face insurgents and external enemies with less reliance on U.S. firepower.

Although Iraq's long-term prospects are uncertain, its oil-rich government, buttressed by an improving army, stands a good chance of avoiding disaster. To his credit, war-critic Obama understands the stakes that the war raised, and the sacrifices our troops have made. He speaks of gradual withdrawal and of keeping forces in place for emergencies.

His aim is to end a costly strategic mistake and to concentrate instead on radical Islamic fundamentalism's heartland -- Afghanistan and its unruly border with Pakistan. With that job unfinished after seven years, it is the task of a new administration. Gen. David Petraeus, who this week took on a wider command that encompasses Afghanistan, promises a "comprehensive" approach. He'll need more troops too. A careful withdrawal from Iraq will free them for the fight.