Iraq is lost. Baghdad won't fall tomorrow, but in time its name will stand alongside Beirut, Mogadishu and Saigon as one of America's post-World War II military failures.

Of course it won't be called that. We Americans have become experts at denying and then sugar-coating failure. Our surrender will be labeled "phased redeployment," and when Iraq finally falls we'll have the gall to blame it on the Iraqis.

We've already started. The Washington Post reports that U.S. Central Command Chief Gen. John Abizaid dressed down Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki for not disbanding sectarian militias fast enough. Gen. Abizaid reportedly asked al Malaki for -- this is rich -- a timetable for when the Iraqi military could secure the country.

Uh, general, isn't it a bit silly to ask an infant Iraqi security force to accomplish a job the world's most powerful military has been unable and unwilling to do? Isn't it a bit hypocritical to ask, of all things, for a timetable? I recall President Bush saying timetables benefit only the terrorists.

The irony of this meeting is matched stateside by the Iraq Study Group (ISG) and Bush's signaling that he'll welcome its recommendations. Bad sign. War-wining presidents, including Washington, Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Truman, didn't need study groups. They relied on leadership.

Worse yet, the ISG is co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker III. If Baker were president, Saddam Hussein wouldn't be facing a hangman's noose; he'd still be tightening nooses.

Is there really any doubt what this commission is going to recommend? Not in my mind. It will adopt the Pelosi Doctrine -- our military intervention in Iraq is not a war to win, but a problem to be solved.

Make that a domestic political problem to be solved.

When Baghdad crumbles into chaos, I won't point an accusatory finger at future Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Rep. John Murtha or any other cut-and-run Democrat. I will point that finger at President Bush and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. After the United States went on the offensive and ousted Saddam, our leaders switched gears to a low-troop-level, defensive strategy, on purpose.

Former Army chief of staff Gen. Eric Shinseki is just one of a long line of military and civilian experts who told Rumsfeld, and by extension, Bush, that hundreds of thousands of troops would be needed to occupy and secure Iraq. But not even U.S. interests in the Middle East will derail this administration's obsession with transforming the nation's military from a heavy-armament, troop-dependent force into a lighter, quicker-deploying and technology-driven power.

"Transformation" does make a lot of sense. Implementing it during wartime doesn't.

You be the judge. If you were president, is now the right time to be reducing our military? That's exactly what we're doing. Personnel levels are being reduced in both the Navy and Air Force.

While I'm irretrievably pessimistic, one powerful and knowledgeable optimist remains. Arizona Sen. John McCain still believes Iraq can be saved, although its fate could be decided in six months. If he were commander in chief, 20,000 additional troops would immediately be deployed to secure Baghdad.

Unfortunately, McCain's is a lone voice. The mid-term elections announced to the world -- and to the terrorists -- that the American people have lost their patience with the war. There won't be any more troops deployed to Baghdad, simply because there is no longer the political or popular will to win.

When U.S. troops begin to pull out, Iraq won't be anywhere close to being the thriving and emerging democracy more than 2,800 Americans have given their lives trying to build. A good end in Iraq no longer matters to most of us, only that it end.

In that respect, Iraq really has become another Vietnam. As McCain noted in a November 2003 speech to the Council of Foreign Relations, Vietnam was lost because the United States had lost the will to fight, because it didn't understand the nature of the conflict and because our national leaders limited the tools available to win that war.

I regret that the same description, a year from now, will apply to Iraq.

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