It is time once again for my annual predictions on North Carolina government and politics. Last year was one of my worst. I prefer my crow barbecued with a mustard sauce, thank you very much.

I correctly predicted Edwards would announce for president, Republican U.S. Rep. Richard Burr would run for Edwards' Senate seat, the push for a state lottery would once again fail and Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker would be re-elected.

I was wrong when I wrote that Democrat Erskine Bowles would not run for the U.S. Senate again, Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole would quickly emerge as a high-profile senator, the GOP House caucus would stick together to elect a Republican speaker of the North Carolina House, and that widespread state employee layoffs would flow from the budget crisis.

So my predictions should be viewed with big dollop of skepticism. With that caveat, here's my look ahead to 2004:

1. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean will capture the Democratic nomination for president despite efforts by party moderates to derail his candidacy.

2. Attempting to move more toward the center as well as strengthen his defense credentials, Dean will name Gen. Wesley Clark as his running mate.

3. Republican President Bush, buttressed by an improving economy and with the tide slowly turning in Iraq, will easily win re-election. But Bush carries North Carolina by less than the 56 percent of the vote that he did in 2000 because of discontent over the large number of factory closings.

4. Edwards prepares for his retirement from the Senate but begins laying the groundwork for a second presidential bid in 2008.

5. Burr wins Edwards' seat. Bowles is a strong candidate, but he is unable to overcome Bush's coattails and a state preference for GOP senators. Republicans have won eight of the past 11 U.S. Senate races in North Carolina.

6. The state House goes Republican again in the fall election, but this time they are organized enough to put together a governing majority.

7. The state Senate remains in Democratic hands but by a narrow margin. Senate boss Marc Basnight remains in control, but his influence is slipping.

8. Steve Troxler becomes the first Republican state agriculture commissioner elected in North Carolina during the past 100 years, benefiting from the scandal surrounding former Commissioner Meg Scott Phipps, a Democrat.

9. Former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot captures the GOP nomination for governor in a runoff election with Patrick Ballantine. Despite Vinroot fatigue among party activists, other candidates are unable to overcome Vinroot's name identification from having twice run for governor.

10. Democratic Gov. Mike Easley is re-elected, bucking a Republican tide. He is helped by incumbency, likability and a GOP primary that is delayed until August or September, giving the Republicans little time to prepare for a fall campaign.