Put yourself in House Speaker Jim Black's shoes. A federal grand jury is subpoenaing your records. A Republican federal prosecutor who already has two Democratic scalps on his belt -- U.S. Rep. Frank Ballance's and Agriculture Commissioner Meg Scott Phipps' -- is poking around.

You can hardly enjoy your morning coffee because of the latest critical stories in the morning rags.

And there is even a Web site -- run by a former Democratic Party operative, no less -- calling for your resignation.

Yikes! And to think that you cut back your Charlotte optometry practice for this.

The question being asked in all the political haunts of the state capital -- from Sullivan's steakhouse to Mo's Diner -- is this: Can Black survive?

Legally, nothing has yet surfaced that seems felonious, although the investigations are ongoing.

The most damaging information has been twofold.

First, a former top aide and political operative for Black was secretly on the payroll of a major lottery operator.

Second, a lottery commissioner appointed by Black was actually a paid agent for the same lottery operator -- although neither the agent nor the lottery operator ever bothered to tell anyone.

There are also two lingering controversies. There is the state job that went to a Republican legislator who switched parties, helping Black stay in power. And there is Black's protection of the video poker industry -- which he says means thousands of jobs -- which in turn has helped bankroll his political effort.

Whether Black gets pulled down by the controversy depends on whether the feds can find some quid pro quo connection. That is, has money changed hands for an explicit promise of a job or legislation?

There is no evidence this has happened -- not yet.

There is a fine line between giving contributions because you think a candidate will vote your way and making contributions with the understanding of getting something in return. Most special interests think they are getting a return on their political contributions, even if there is no explicit agreement.

The ethical gray area has been enlarged because of two factors most people probably think are good things: the decline of the political machines and the rise of two-party politics.

Because there are no longer any political bosses who can deliver votes, office seekers must go directly to the voters. And because North Carolina is now a two-party state, many legislative seats are fiercely contested.

Voters are reached through millions of dollars of political advertising -- money raised mainly from people who want something from the legislature.

Even if Black is cleared in any federal investigation, he could still be politically damaged. The Democrats hold a 63-57 margin in the House, so a swing of four seats in the November 2006 elections could be enough to tip the balance to the Republicans.

So far, the polls suggest that the public is not paying much attention. But that could change if the controversies become the subject of Republican political ads --paid for, of course, by special interests.