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"Speaker Black has always been good to me," said Owens, who is a co-chairman of the spending committee. "He has been good for Eastern North Carolina and the state of North Carolina. I've always believed in staying with the people who brought you to the dance."

But even Owens, the loyalist, has a fallback plan. If Black is indicted, Owens says he would be inclined to back state Rep. Jim Crawford of Oxford for speaker.

The problem for those who want a change in speaker is that there is no single logical alternative but rather a bevy of candidates who have small pockets of support.

Among Black's challengers is Blue, a two-term former House Speaker and a longtime rival.

Blue was the last Democratic House speaker before Black, losing his post in 1994 after the Republicans won control of the House. When Democrats took back control after the 1998 election, Black defeated Blue in a close vote, in which Blue received considerable Republican support.

Blue has been driving around the state meeting with individual lawmakers. He is campaigning as a reform candidate -- promising to restore integrity to the system, including making sure the rules are followed in the handling of bills.

He compares his comeback effort to that of former Gov. Jim Hunt, who after eight years out of office returned to the governorship with a broader vision.

"I don't know what Jim [Black] is going to do," Blue said. "Given the magnitude of the issues we are facing, we need to focus full attention on the issues and not be defending some of the side issues. I think ethics are very important. Perception is 90 percent of reality."

If House Democrats are looking for an alternative, they also could turn to Hackney, a Chapel Hill lawyer.

"I believe I will have more votes than anybody in the caucus," Hackney said.

As majority leader, Hackney is the second-ranking Democrat in the House. Although his voting record has leaned liberal over his 26-year career, he has moved toward the center in recent years and led the caucus effort this year to raise $2 million for the campaign to help keep the House Democratic.

But House Democrats could look elsewhere, in one of two other groups of candidates.

* The business caucus. One reason the Democrats have been able to retain control of the legislature is that Democratic leaders such as Black have been pro-business. Black, in particular, has close ties with the Charlotte business community, including the major banks. At least three members of the so-called business caucus of the House have expressed an interest in the speakership -- Crawford, and Reps. Drew Saunders of Huntersville and Hugh Holliman of Lexington.

* Long-shot candidates. Rep. Mickey Michaux of Durham and Bill Faison of Orange County have each expressed interest, but conventional wisdom does not have either as a strong contender. If the House becomes deadlocked in a speaker fight, some people are pushing Rep. Becky Carney of Charlotte, who is being groomed for leadership by Black.

There is also the possibility that a Democrat could cut a deal with the House Republicans, although that seems less likely this year because the Democrats now have a working majority. Both Blue and Black have a history of forging a bipartisan coalition. So even if either fails to win a majority of the Democratic caucus, both have the option of aligning with some Republican allies. For Blue in particular, this is probably his best chance of being elected.

But the Republicans may be gun-shy about entering a power-sharing agreement. Many of the Republicans who joined forces with Black were purged in a primary campaign organized by Raleigh business executive Art Pope.

The African-American caucus could play a pivotal role if it unites behind a candidate.

If Black does not get elected speaker, he could have a large say about who the winner will be.

So far, most of the politicking has been soft-sell. Lawmakers say they have received letters, personal visits and telephone calls from potential candidates.

"They don't say: Will you vote for me for speaker?" said Rep. Deborah Ross of Raleigh. "No one is looking for a commitment. Everybody is like having a conversation."

That is one reason the numbers are so squishy, with wildly different numbers circulating on how many votes each candidate has.

"I just believe people in the caucus who have been around are going to be slow to make a commitment," Saunders said. "I can't see someone jumping out there and saying, 'Sure, I will support you no matter what.' They are not very good politicians if they are doing that."

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