Consider the quandary of the N.C. House Democrats. They face the choice of remaining loyal to House Speaker Jim Black, the architect of the Democrats' return to power, or finding a leader who doesn't risk being indicted.

The predicament spoils what should be happy times for Democrats, who solidified their control of the state House in last month's legislative elections. Instead, the next seven weeks will be marked by political intrigue leading up to the vote for speaker when the legislature convenes in January.

The speaker's race offers enough plot lines for a political potboiler. Will Black, arguably the most powerful House speaker in North Carolina history, be re-elected or indicted? Can Dan Blue, who in the early 1990s became the first African-American House speaker in the South since Reconstruction, make a comeback? Or can the House's leading environmentalist, Joe Hackney, convince big business that he will not be a tree-hugger. And that's just the beginning.

For now, Black probably has the most votes but appears far short of what he needs to win an unprecedented fifth term. At least eight House members are eyeing the post.

"I think it's going to be the most interesting speaker's race we've had in this century and probably in the 20th century," said Brad Crone, a Democratic political consultant in Raleigh.

The Democrats now have 68 of the 120 House seats. Normally, they would caucus in December and nominate a speaker.

But these are not normal times. Black's political associates have been the subject of a dizzying array of investigations by a federal grand jury, the Wake County District Attorney's Office and the State Board of Elections, mainly over allegations of improper political fundraising and lobbying on such issues as the state lottery and video poker.

The speaker of the House holds one of the most influential positions in state government. The speaker appoints committee chairmen and controls the flow of legislation. The state, for example, now has a lottery, in large measure, because Black supported it.

Speaker's races are the ultimate inside politics, with only House members voting.

Before 1989, the speaker's race was almost always settled months and even years in advance -- a royal line of succession of mainly rural, white, conservative-leaning Democrats who would take turns leading the House. But ever since powerful House Speaker Liston Ramsey was toppled by a bipartisan coalition in 1989, the speaker's race has been fiercely contested.

The speaker races have been marked by Machiavellian back-room deals, back-stabbing, and even a co-speakership. In federal court this year, one former lawmaker alleged that money changed hands in a speaker election.

Despite all his troubles, Black still claims to have more votes than any of the other potential candidates -- the result of his having done favors for many of the Democratic House members over the years. His other assets include his skills as a listener and his ability to pull together an ideologically diverse caucus.

Although vote-counting is difficult, the conventional wisdom among lawmakers and lobbyists is that Black has 23 or 24 votes of the 68 Democrats -- and no other Democrat has even close to that total.

"Jim has a very loyal base of support," Crone says. "Black is telling them he has not been indicted, is not going to be indicted and they need to stay on his team. Black's people say he has been under investigation for more than a year. If they had something, they would come, but they don't have anything."

Black could not be reached for comment.

Among the Black supporters is Rep. Bill Owens, an Elizabeth City real-estate executive.

"Speaker Black has always been good to me," said Owens, who is a co-chairman of the spending committee. "He has been good for Eastern North Carolina and the state of North Carolina. I've always believed in staying with the people who brought you to the dance."

But even Owens, the loyalist, has a fallback plan. If Black is indicted, Owens says he would be inclined to back state Rep. Jim Crawford of Oxford for speaker.

The problem for those who want a change in speaker is that there is no single logical alternative but rather a bevy of candidates who have small pockets of support.

Among Black's challengers is Blue, a two-term former House Speaker and a longtime rival.

Blue was the last Democratic House speaker before Black, losing his post in 1994 after the Republicans won control of the House. When Democrats took back control after the 1998 election, Black defeated Blue in a close vote, in which Blue received considerable Republican support.

Blue has been driving around the state meeting with individual lawmakers. He is campaigning as a reform candidate -- promising to restore integrity to the system, including making sure the rules are followed in the handling of bills.

He compares his comeback effort to that of former Gov. Jim Hunt, who after eight years out of office returned to the governorship with a broader vision.

"I don't know what Jim [Black] is going to do," Blue said. "Given the magnitude of the issues we are facing, we need to focus full attention on the issues and not be defending some of the side issues. I think ethics are very important. Perception is 90 percent of reality."

If House Democrats are looking for an alternative, they also could turn to Hackney, a Chapel Hill lawyer.

"I believe I will have more votes than anybody in the caucus," Hackney said.

As majority leader, Hackney is the second-ranking Democrat in the House. Although his voting record has leaned liberal over his 26-year career, he has moved toward the center in recent years and led the caucus effort this year to raise $2 million for the campaign to help keep the House Democratic.

But House Democrats could look elsewhere, in one of two other groups of candidates.

* The business caucus. One reason the Democrats have been able to retain control of the legislature is that Democratic leaders such as Black have been pro-business. Black, in particular, has close ties with the Charlotte business community, including the major banks. At least three members of the so-called business caucus of the House have expressed an interest in the speakership -- Crawford, and Reps. Drew Saunders of Huntersville and Hugh Holliman of Lexington.

* Long-shot candidates. Rep. Mickey Michaux of Durham and Bill Faison of Orange County have each expressed interest, but conventional wisdom does not have either as a strong contender. If the House becomes deadlocked in a speaker fight, some people are pushing Rep. Becky Carney of Charlotte, who is being groomed for leadership by Black.

There is also the possibility that a Democrat could cut a deal with the House Republicans, although that seems less likely this year because the Democrats now have a working majority. Both Blue and Black have a history of forging a bipartisan coalition. So even if either fails to win a majority of the Democratic caucus, both have the option of aligning with some Republican allies. For Blue in particular, this is probably his best chance of being elected.

But the Republicans may be gun-shy about entering a power-sharing agreement. Many of the Republicans who joined forces with Black were purged in a primary campaign organized by Raleigh business executive Art Pope.

The African-American caucus could play a pivotal role if it unites behind a candidate.

If Black does not get elected speaker, he could have a large say about who the winner will be.

So far, most of the politicking has been soft-sell. Lawmakers say they have received letters, personal visits and telephone calls from potential candidates.

"They don't say: Will you vote for me for speaker?" said Rep. Deborah Ross of Raleigh. "No one is looking for a commitment. Everybody is like having a conversation."

That is one reason the numbers are so squishy, with wildly different numbers circulating on how many votes each candidate has.

"I just believe people in the caucus who have been around are going to be slow to make a commitment," Saunders said. "I can't see someone jumping out there and saying, 'Sure, I will support you no matter what.' They are not very good politicians if they are doing that."