Edwards' choices: bad and worse

Two-time loser vows to fight on

CLEMSON, S.C. -- John Edwards returned to his native Southern soil Wednesday, but his presidential prospects looked as bleak as the Iowa and New Hampshire winter landscapes that he left behind.

Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, vowed to stay in the Democratic presidential primary until the national convention in August.

"No matter what the media says," Edwards said at Clemson University, "so far there have been two contests, two states: Iowa, where I finished second, and New Hampshire, where I finished third. There are 48 states left to go. And your voice here in South Carolina is going to be heard."

But Edwards faces dwindling options after finishing a distant third in New Hampshire behind his chief rivals, Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York, according to interviews with Democratic strategists and presidential campaign experts.

Clinton and Obama are dominating the money-raising, the media attention, the endorsements and the polls in the next round of Democratic primary and caucus states.

On Wednesday, Edwards drew a muted crowd of 300 to 400 people at Clemson that seemed to include far more curious students than Edwards supporters. He suffered another setback when the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union -- a group that Edwards hoped to ride to victory in the Jan. 19 Nevada caucus -- endorsed Obama.

"There is not a lot of oxygen in the room," said Tad Devine, who was chief political consultant to Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. "It will be very hard for him to continue."

In the coming weeks, experts predict Edwards will find it increasingly difficult to raise the money to finance a national campaign, or to collect important labor or political endorsements, or to attract the television cameras.

"Momentum drives money, drives endorsements, drives votes, drives delegates," said Bill Carrick, a California-based consultant who was chief strategist for Dick Gephardt's campaign. "In this compressed calendar, it is even more dramatic."

The Edwards campaign said its strategy is to run a marathon, collecting delegates, picking up victories here and there, and hoping that Obama and Clinton stumble and Democratic voters turn in the end to Edwards.

It is, veteran political observers say, a long-shot strategy. But so far, some key backers said they plan to stick with their man, noting that this has been a political season filled with surprises.

"You can't recover a fumble if you're not on the playing field," said Gibson Vance, a Montgomery, Ala., trial lawyer and Edwards fundraiser. "I think John is a viable alternative."

Wade Byrd, a Fayetteville lawyer and Edwards fundraiser who returned Wednesday from New Hampshire, said Edwards has enough money to be competitive for now.

"It's a long way from over," Byrd said. "We've had some great fundraising between Iowa and New Hampshire. We feel pretty solid through South Carolina."

On the bright side

The Edwards campaign notes that the playing field looks more level if you consider the delegate count. Obama has 25 delegates, Clinton has 24 delegates and Edwards has 18 delegates.

Devine said the Democrats' proportional system means that Edwards can win hundreds of delegates as long as he captures at least 15 percent of the vote in every state. That could allow Edwards to continue to help shape the dialogue in the Democratic primary -- something he has already done with his advocacy of universal health care and his opposition to trade deals that he says are unfair.

Joe Trippi, Edwards' chief strategist, has drawn a parallel to another campaign he helped run -- that of former California Gov. Jerry Brown in 1992. Brown did not win a primary until March, but he ran a low-cost, grass-roots campaign to "take back America from the confederacy of corruption, careerism and campaign consulting in Washington."