Schumer sees blue skies in Hagan's bid

The U.S. Senate's chief political Democrat puts the North Carolina race at a midtier level on his ranking of winnable seats in November.

Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, called Kay Hagan a good challenger, but the race is close, he told Dome on Wednesday.

Schumer put North Carolina on par with other senatorial races he called "even or close" in states such as Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky and Maine.

That mirrors the predictions of other political punditry outfits such as the Cook Political Report, which recently shifted North Carolina into the "leans Republican" category and away from solid Republican.

Polls in recent months showed Hagan gaining on incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole, then slipping after Dole launched a major advertising blitz.

Schumer confirmed the DSCC has committed millions of dollars to advertising for Hagan and said the organization is setting up an "extensive" on-the-ground field network of staff on Hagan's behalf.

"That shows our commitment," Schumer said. He would not go into further details.

Schumer listed North Carolina as one of the states in which presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama helps the party's candidate.

And he praised Hagan.

"Kay Hagan's on fire," Schumer said. "She's doing great. That's a seat we're real strong in."

Dole gets a new fundraiser

Dole has a new chief fundraiser for her re-election campaign.

J. Sam Daniels left the campaign about a month ago, Dole's campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley said. Daniels had served as finance director for about two months and had previously been the campaign manager.

"It had gotten to the point, as campaigns do, where he was missing time with his family," Gidley said, adding that Daniels had been working seven days a week.

Gidley said the change was not related to the campaign's finances. In the second quarter of 2008, Dole raised $1.69 million, while her Democratic opponent Kay Hagan raised $1.54 million.

Replacing Daniels is James Earp, who previously was the N.C. Chamber's vice president for business development. Earp also worked on Dole's 2002 campaign.

Polls agree on McCain's slight lead

In the presidential race, various pollsters are getting similar results.

The race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama shows little change, despite advertising by both campaigns in recent weeks. In all the polls, McCain holds a tiny lead, often within the margin of error. The inclusion of Libertarian Bob Barr does not seem to have a major effect on the results.

JULY 14-16: McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 2

JULY 15: McCain 48, Obama 45

JULY 12-14: McCain 50, Obama 45

JUNE 26-29: McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 5

JUNE 11-13: McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2

JUNE 10: McCain 45, Obama 43, Other 6

MAY 28-29: McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 6

MAY 14-17: McCain 44, Obama 39

THE BOTTOM LINE: Voters are taking a wait-and-see attitude, while pollsters are relying on static models for voter turnout. Come election day, the numbers could be significantly different if a huge number of previously inactive voters show up or the undecided voters break decisively in one direction.