Public finance may not survive

Obama's success may foil system

WASHINGTON -- It wasn't Barack Obama's most critically acclaimed moment.

When the Democratic presidential candidate reneged on his pledge to take public financing for the general election, campaign watchdog groups and newspaper editorialists pounced. They had all hoped he would help salvage a broken campaign finance system.

Instead, he created a whole new one, and he destined the current system of public financing to the trash heap.

On Sunday, Obama's campaign announced he had raised more than $150 million in September alone, a previously unimaginable fundraising rate of $5 million a day. Republican rival John McCain, who chose to participate in the public system, has been limited by law to spending only $84 million in September and October.

At Obama's clip, his fundraising will easily surpass the $650 million total spent by President Bush and Democrat John Kerry combined in 2004. Indeed, by using sophisticated new social networking tools to reach legions of small donors, Obama has already exceeded the forecasts of some campaign finance seers who two years ago were predicting the two parties' nominees would each spend about $500 million.

The extraordinary sum vindicated Obama's decision -- from a financial standpoint, at least. It also made a public finance system born after the excesses of the Watergate era look decidedly quaint.

"People will look back at 2008 as the year that Barack Obama once and for all destroyed public financing as we know it," said Todd Harris, a Republican strategist who worked on McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. "It will be very difficult four years from now for any candidate to make the case that they should participate in public financing, given the obvious financial advantage that Obama has received by opting out."

A model for future

But advocates of a public finance system aren't eager to give up on a system that relies on voluntary taxpayer contributions on their annual tax returns. And though Obama backed away from his promise to take public money if McCain did, they want him to live up to his pledge to fix the system if he becomes president.

"The question for Democrats is, Will they decide to go forward with something that is not to their immediate advantage?" said David Donnelly, director of Campaign Money Watch.

Whether other politicians could replicate Obama's feat is certainly an open question. But political campaigns tend to model themselves on the last successful effort. If Obama goes on to win the White House, his fundraising model will be the first chapter in future campaign playbooks.

McCain has had to rely on the Republican National Committee to supplement his restricted finances. And though their combined forces had given them some parity with Obama and the Democratic National Committee, Obama's September performance amounted to a fifth gear that the GOP simply didn't have.

Still, it's easy to overstate the significance of Obama's millions. His success so far in national and state public opinion polls also reflects a toxic political environment for McCain and Republicans.

And finding the key to unleash a torrent of small donors is only part of a successful political equation. Howard Dean surged as a candidate with his unprecedented Internet fundraising in advance of the 2004 Democratic presidential primaries. He lost.