Published: Mon, Oct. 27, 2008 12:30AM

Modified Mon, Oct. 27, 2008 08:03AM

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"It trickles down," she said of the economy. "It affects everybody."

Shifting demographics

Newcomers Walshin and Gerbino agree, however, that North Carolina has gone from a red state to a tossup.

That's because of the kind of newcomers the state is attracting, said Guillory of UNC. In the 1980s, he said, transplants tended to be white suburbanites. They skewed Republican or socially conservative Democrats, so-called Jesse-crats for the late senator from North Carolina.

"But now we are getting more creative workers. We are getting young families, both black and white, and they come here and they want good hospitals and schools and a bike path and clean water," Guillory said. "They want the kind of amenities that government helps provide."

They also are moving to the state's urban centers, namely Charlotte and the Research Triangle. And it's the state's biggest counties that have increasingly been favoring Democrats, Guillory said. In 2000, Bush won 12 of the state's 15 largest counties. But in 2004, Bush claimed just six.

Even if they are not Democrats, the state's new residents tend to be moderate, the kind of voter that either party could persuade, said Gary Pearce, a Democratic strategist in Raleigh.

"They support education. They have kids in schools a lot of time. They are more concerned with the environment," he said.

But that's not all newcomer Brandon Dye, 32, is concerned about. He moved to Gastonia in February from Newport News, Va., after completing service with the Navy.

Dye, a medical products salesman, will vote for McCain on Nov. 4. His reasons are "across the board," he said. "You have abortion, immigration, the Second Amendment. You can pretty much throw anything out there." He also believes in smaller government.

McCain and Obama both promise change. What few dispute is that change is what makes North Carolina a surprise battleground this year.

Guillory said, "It is because the state has been so dynamic over the last few decades that Barack Obama has a chance."

(Charlotte Observer database editor Ted Mellnik and reporter Peter St. Onge contributed to this article.)