Terrain changes for Dems

What if the circus comes to town?

I don't mean lion tamers or human cannon balls.

I mean Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama. Bill Clinton and Oprah Winfrey. Wolf Blitzer and Katie Couric.

There is now a distinct possibility that the race for the Democratic nomination for president may still be in doubt on May 6, when North Carolina holds its primary. If that's so, Tar Heel voters will get at least a two-week dose of big-time politics -- huge crowds, heavy TV advertising, blanket media coverage and lots of glitter.

An early scouting party arrived Friday. A top Hillary Clinton operative, Jay Dunn, met at Caffe Luna, a Raleigh restaurant, with local Democratic fundraisers.

The deadlock between Clinton and Obama after the Super Tuesday primaries also sent the strategists for North Carolina's political candidates scrambling to figure out what this means for them.

"At 6:20 a.m. Wednesday morning, I sat down and started counting and came to the conclusion that our world had fundamentally changed," said Jay Reiff, chief strategist for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Moore. "There was no way that North Carolina would not be a major player in the presidential race.

"We had a campaign strategy for a traditional Democratic Party primary. We had to throw that out. It's a new world."

It's a new world because a competitive presidential primary is likely to attract waves of new voters -- both Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

If that happens, it could have a significant impact on North Carolina's Democratic primaries. Because the GOP presidential race seems nearly settled, the impact will likely be on Democratic races.

At first blush, a full-bore presidential effort would likely help Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue in her Democratic gubernatorial fight with Moore, the state treasurer.

Perdue leads among black voters, 56 percent to 19 percent, and among female voters, 48 percent to 29 percent, according to a survey of likely Democratic voters released Friday by Public Policy Polling.

"A turnout increase among women and among African-Americans and progressive voters in general could be an advantage for Perdue," said Mac McCorkle, a Perdue strategist. "But we are not taking anything like that to the bank."

Moore could be helped by the influx of younger, "change" voters, including unaffiliated voters attracted to Obama.

A hot presidential primary could also help female candidates such as Kay Hagan, a U.S. Senate candidate, and Janet Cowell, a state treasurer candidate. It could help more liberal Democrats such as Hampton Dellinger and Dan Besse, both running for lieutenant governor.

A competitive Obama-Clinton race could also make it more difficult for state candidates to be heard above the presidential din -- helping those candidates who are now leading.

"Anyone who tries to tell you for certain what kind of impact it will have is being foolish," Reiff said. "There is a huge X factor."