The state lottery will likely miss its target of raising $425 million for education programs set by Gov. Mike Easley and legislative leaders, according to a draft of the lottery's budget.

The state lottery commission is expected today to adopt its plan for the coming year, which includes forecasts of what the games will generate.

The lottery commission's Finance Committee met late Monday with lottery director Tom Shaheen and then lowered sales projections.

The commissioners agreed on a forecast of generating $401 million for education, about 6 percent less than what Easley and lawmakers have expected and outlined in their own budgets.

The lower number is the result of projecting lower sales.

Instead of generating $1.2 billion in its first year of sales, the commissioners now project that the lottery will fall short of that by about $50 million.

Shaheen, the lottery director, has said all along that the higher number would be a challenge to reach and said he was more comfortable with the lower number.

Commissioner Max Cogburn of Asheville said the $400 million figure of money for education was used freely as the lottery was shaped, debated and adopted last year. Indeed, all sorts of numerical estimates of what the lottery would mean for education were thrown around.

Easley budget higher

The Easley administration consistently estimated the first year's proceeds at least $425 million, at least, and as much as $500 million.

Easley, who has championed the lottery since taking office in 2001, put the $425 million figure in his budget released last month.

But Cogburn and others said the lower number is an attempt to set a reasonable target.

"What we're trying to do ... is make an estimate that realistically works," he said. "We're coming up with a budget we feel comfortable with and not just going out there trying to meet a number."

The lower target would mean $25 million less than lawmakers and Easley have already planned for More at Four, reducing class sizes, school construction projects and college scholarships.

Easley's office said late Monday the governor had not seen the data and didn't know how the commissioners arrived at the lower figure.

The commissioners said there is still a chance that sales of tickets will be higher and the $425 million figure will be met.

They pointed out that not all of the planned scratch-off games have hit store shelves and that numbers-picking games besides the national Powerball game won't be offered until autumn.

Still, they want to make sure that the lottery brings in at least $401 million -- which is 35 percent of projected sales, as required by law -- and spent plenty of time jiggering numbers to make sure.

To do it, commissioners had to cut some administrative expenses, including $1 million for advertising and $1.5 million worth of free tickets that would have been awarded as prizes in the coming year.

The budget returns 50.25 percent of all sales to players in the form of prizes. It includes money for 222 jobs. It also includes $1 million for problem gambling help.

And there is more than $17 million for lottery contractor GTECH Holdings of Rhode Island, which handles the computerized and instant-ticket game contracts.

Other spending includes:

* $75,000 on possible outside legal fees, on top of $113,000 for a lawyer in the Attorney General's Office and a staff lawyer who is a deputy director.

* $50,000 on market research.

* $201,000 to award staff with average raises of 5 percent.

* $30,000 for up to 16 people to travel to a national lottery conference in Chicago.

* $90,000 for moving expenses for employees.

* $1.1 million for a bonus program for sales employees.