I'm responding to the Sept. 3 letter "What the numbers tell," which claimed that John McCain's chance of dying in office is only 2.3 percent. Based on the Social Security Administration's actuarial tables, McCain's chance of dying is actually about 1 in 7 over the next four years. (www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1).

To calculate the chance of dying during office, we must compute 72-year-old McCain's chance of living to each of his next four birthdays, which the tables tell us is 96.7022 percent, 96.3914 percent, 96.0494 percent and 95.6585 percent. That means his chance of living all four years is 0.8564318 (85.6 percent) or a death chance a bit over 14 percent.

To be fair, these stats are for a person of average health starting from exactly age 72. Given McCain's wealth, his health is likely to be above average, but let's not pretend that his chances of dying are less than 3 percent as the letter claimed.

Even if McCain were to live to age 76, which he would be at the end of a first term, there is an additional 3 percent to 5 percent chance of some sort of dementia, adding to the risk that the VP candidate will have to serve as president.

Sarah Palin as president is a possibility that every voter should seriously consider when casting a ballot.

Jeff Langenderfer, Cary

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