News & Observer | newsobserver.com | Poll: Uncertainty about Obama lingers in Carolinas

Published: Aug 17, 2008 12:30 AM
Modified: Aug 17, 2008 01:26 AM

Poll: Uncertainty about Obama lingers in Carolinas

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OTHER POLL FINDINGS

* McCain led by 14 points among men but trailed by 6 points among women.

* Respondents ages 18 to 34 said Obama would be a better president, 44 percent to 42 percent. Respondents 55 and older backed McCain, 47 percent to 32 percent.

* Unaffiliated respondents supported McCain, 36 percent to 32 percent. About twice as many Democrats supported McCain as Republicans who supported Obama.

* Even Republicans said they regard Obama as more easygoing and likeable, 50 percent to 39 percent.

* Among Democrats, opion was closely divided concerning which candidate is more knowledgeable and experienced. McCain was favored by 47 percent, compared with 45 percent for Obama.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Charlotte Observer/NewsChannel 36 2008 Carolinas Poll is the 28th annual survey of North Carolina and South Carolina adults. The poll is based on 1,008 confidential telephone interviews conducted Aug. 8-13 by The Telephone Centre Inc., of Greensboro. Polltakers used random-digit dialing, which provides each household in a telephone exchange an equal chance of being selected, even if the telephone number is unpublished. Data are weighted to accurately represent geography, race, age and gender. The maximum sampling error for 1,008 interviews is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. This means results in 19 of 20 similar samples would vary no more than 3.1 percentage points from results obtained if every North Carolina and South Carolina adult were surveyed.

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Democrat Barack Obama will have to overcome tepid support from white voters and their high regard for Republican John McCain as an honest and principled leader if he intends to win North Carolina.

Obama has said he can bring traditionally Republican states into play, particularly in the South. He launched his general election campaign in Raleigh, has aired TV ads in North Carolina and has opened more than a dozen campaign offices across the state. On Saturday, his campaign announced that he will return to Raleigh on Tuesday to hold a town hall meeting at the State Fairgrounds.

But a new poll from The Charlotte Observer and NewsChannel 36 shows that North Carolinians think McCain would be a better president, 43 percent to 38 percent. The margin of sampling error for the overall poll is 3.1 percent.

They give him more credit than they do Obama for being knowledgeable and experienced, and they think he would make a stronger commander in chief. More of them see McCain as being honest, standing up for his beliefs and having strong commander-in-chief leadership qualities. South Carolina respondents generally felt the same way.

Youth or experience?

"I think McCain would be a better president because of his level of experience," said Kate Ivers, 47, a stay-at-home mother and part-time physical therapist from Cary. "Even though I'd love to see an African-American in office, I just don't see Obama as having enough experience."

Carolinians, though, think Obama is stronger on several fronts. They see him as likeable, optimistic and more compassionate than McCain.

"He's much more appealing when it comes to a brighter outlook and a better attitude," said Michael Oldson, 45, a Democrat who sells real estate in Huntersville. "It's infectious. You finally have someone who's out there trying to pump you up and say good things."

The news organizations polled residents, without asking whether they plan to vote. The poll gauges overall public sentiment better than it predicts the outcome of the election.

McCain fared slightly better among respondents who said they are registered to vote.

The race factor

Carolinians' opinions split starkly along racial lines, the poll shows.

Black residents largely support Obama and white residents tend to back McCain, a finding that mirrors other polls around the country. But the depth of the chasm between the two races is striking, and larger than in national polls.

The results suggest that to win either state, Obama would have to spark tremendous turnout among black voters, or somehow attract significantly more white voters over the next two months.

Consider:

* Virtually no blacks in the Carolinas think McCain would do a better job as president. Black respondents backed Obama, 91 percent to close to zero percent.

* Just 24 percent of white Carolinians in the poll said they think Obama would do a better job, while 54 percent support McCain.

* On one characteristic after another, blacks and whites gave opposite answers over which candidate would be better. Who, for example, would make a better commander in chief? Whites say McCain, by a 70-19 margin; blacks say Obama, by an 83-13 spread.

* Whites split evenly on President Bush's job performance. Blacks largely disapproved.

Some Democrats have hoped that Obama would be the candidate who could transcend race. Poll results suggest that's not happening, at least in the Carolinas.

"You have a number of Democrats who are unsure about Obama for a variety of reasons. His race may be part of it. Also, that he's new on the scene, and there are all these rumors that are going around," said Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center in Washington.

There isn't a high enough percentage of black voters in the state to put him over the top. Black voters represent less than 21 percent of all registered voters in North Carolina.

That means he needs undecided white voters to break his way. No Democratic presidential candidate has won either of the Carolinas in 32 years.

(Staff writer Rob Christensen contributed to this report.)

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Staff writer Rob Christensen contributed to this report.
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