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The X factor
BIGGEST NEED
Two more scoring options. With the departures of 2006-07 ACC player of the year Jared Dudley and Sean Marshall, point guard Tyrese Rice needs someone to share the scoring load.
WHO WILL FILL IT
Sophomore forward Shamari Spears (7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg) is second only to Rice among returning players in scoring. Senior post player John Oates (4.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg) may have to provide more oomph down low as well.
FANTASY LEAGUE PICK
Tyler Hansbrough. The UNC forward isn't as versatile as Dudley or former Eagles power forward Craig Smith, but Rice would rack up double-digit assists every night passing to the relentless Hansbrough in the post.
Looking at the new season
2006-07 RECORD: 21-12, 10-6, TIED FOR THIRD IN ACC - COACH: AL SKINNER (11TH SEASON, 196-120 AT BOSTON COLLEGE)
PLUS
* Tyrese Rice is the perfect point guard in Al Skinner's flex offense. He can handle the ball in tight spots, shoot the 3 off the dribble and, even at an undersized 6 feet 1, drive the ball to the basket, create contact and get to the free-throw line.
* Tyrelle Blair blocked 62 shots, fifth in the ACC, in about two-thirds of a season. The 6-11 forward's role didn't expand until Sean Williams was dismissed from the team in January for marijuana-related issues.
* The Eagles are coming off their sixth NCAA Tournament appearance in seven seasons under Skinner, so there is, as coaches are apt to say, a culture of winning.
MINUS
* ACC player of the year Jared Dudley and his 19 points and 8.3 rebounds per game have found their way to Charlotte and the NBA. Williams, an incredible shot-blocker who was developing as an offensive force, would have been the logical successor to Dudley. Williams, who would have been a senior, is also in the NBA with New Jersey.
* Rice is fearless and doesn't need a lot of room to shoot, but, at 6-1, it's going to be difficult for him to shoot over two or three defenders.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
If Shamari Spears, Rakim Sanders or another one of Skinner's diamonds emerges as a viable option to complement Rice, maybe the Eagles can muster seven or eight ACC victories and sneak into the NCAA conversation.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
The rest of the ACC follows Duke's blueprint and traps Rice past halfcourt to make him give up the ball. Sanders and fellow freshman Corey Raji aren't ready to consistently contribute, and 6-10 senior center John Oates continues his inexplicable love affair with the 3-ball. That equals a four-win ACC season and no NIT.
REALISTIC SCENARIO
The Eagles have won 21 conference games in their first two seasons in the ACC and are due to drop a peg. Rice and Skinner's system should be able conjure up six league wins and an appointment in the NIT./factboxtext>
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