A new Chris Johnson is found to support improving quarterbacks Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass. The defense, with nine returning starters, is as strong as expected.

The Pirates jump out of the gate with a win over Virginia Tech in Charlotte and make it an ACC sweep with nonconference wins at N.C. State and Virginia.

Inside Conference USA, Central Florida, the defending champ, takes a step back and the Pirates gladly fill in the void in the East Division and end up hosting Tulsa in the C-USA title game in Greenville.

With the right focus and an improved road effort, 10 or even 11 wins are available for Skip Holtz's fourth team.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

After a close call to Virginia Tech, West Virginia runs the Pirates out of Greenville. Both State and UVa protect their home field and the Kevin Smith-less UCF Knights are better than the Johnson-less Pirates.

The defense, which allowed 30 points per game in 2007, is more experienced but not measurably better, not in a league that plays at a fast-break tempo.

Even if all goes wrong, the Pirates are looking at a 7-5 season with a third straight bowl trip for Holtz.

REALISTIC SCENARIO

After two good, albeit losing, efforts against Virginia Tech and West Virginia, the Pirates split with State and UVa and go 7-1 against the conference.

That adds up to a C-USA title and another chance to impress nationally in the Liberty Bowl.

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