That's what North Carolina and ACC basketball fans face now that Tar Heels sophomore guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington have emerged from a spring burrow to see if the NBA is impressed by their shadows.

In Lawson's case, it's a virtual lock that he'll go somewhere in the first round. He doesn't project as the best point guard on the board for the June 26 draft. But if the first round is all the security Lawson needs, he's gone.

There's a decent chance Ellington will return to school -- out of necessity. That he's a talented outside shooter isn't the question. He is. But at 6 feet 4 -- if that -- and with average skills beyond his stroke, he'll need some luck to be assured of going in the first round.

Lawson and Ellington have until 5 p.m. June 16 to either remain in the draft pool or withdraw and maintain their collegiate eligibility.

Center Tyler Hansbrough's decision to return for his senior season was, by far, the most important development in Chapel Hill on Friday. That assures the Heels and the ACC of having at least one centerpiece player in the 2008-09 season.

Granted, it will be more difficult for Hansbrough to get the ball and score points if Lawson isn't around to take care of distribution.

But it won't be impossible. Remember that Lawson, while battling an ankle injury, missed the majority of the 2007-08 ACC regular-season schedule. Neither North Carolina nor Hansbrough faded significantly during that period. Previously little-used Quentin Thomas filled Lawson's void, and the team responded favorably. In preseason, Thomas was the No. 3 playmaker, behind Lawson and junior Bobby Frasor, who will be back.

Should both Lawson and Ellington remain in the draft, UNC's starters next season probably will be Hansbrough and Deon Thompson inside, Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard on the wings and Frasor at the point with a still above-average bench in relief. On paper, that's a national top-10 team and the likely preseason favorite to win the ACC.

The Heels wouldn't be as quick, particularly in transition, and coach Roy Williams likely would be forced to place more emphasis on half-court offensive sets. That should be manageable particularly if the G-Men -- Ginyard, Green and Will Graves -- can make off-season improvements in their outside shooting.

Had Hansbrough joined the potential exodus, the outlook for 2009 would have been entirely different for the Heels and the ACC.

Based on 2008 performances, the projected impact of incoming recruits and NCAA Tournament outcomes, the ACC could have been looking at an uncommonly lean season without Hansbrough. Other than Duke, there probably would not have been a preseason top-15 team. UNC and Miami likely would have been included in most top-25 preseason polls, and Wake Forest should be much improved. That's about it.

Remove Hansbrough, Ellington and Lawson from the mix, and who's your preseason pick for conference player of the year? Duke's Gerald Henderson, perhaps? Boston College's Tyrese Rice, Maryland's Greivis Vasquez, Virginia Tech's A.D. Vassallo, or maybe even Clemson's K.C. Rivers or Miami's Jack McClinton? Toss a dart.

Under the best of circumstances, ACC basketball has slipped into a down period by its standards. It's a strange and uncomfortable station for old-line fans, who understand better than anyone that a decade or longer could pass before the next player with Hansbrough's credentials opts to stay for all four seasons. He's returning for the express reason of trying to win a national championship. The same blueprint didn't work for Tim Duncan at Wake Forest in 1997. It did for Duke's Shane Battier in 2001 and Maryland's seniors in 2002.

But whether Hansbrough gets the ring or the sting, he did the ACC and his school a favor Friday. With everyone in deep water, he tossed both parties a life preserver.