UNC plays numbers game when recruiting

Recruiting commitments appear to put Heels over scholarship limit

CHAPEL HILL -- North Carolina's football players are taking final exams this week, but they're not the only ones at the school who may have to solve a potential math problem.

The Tar Heels will lose 12 scholarship seniors after they complete the 2008 season vs. West Virginia at the Meineke Bowl on Dec. 27. But coach Butch Davis and his staff have already secured 24 verbal commitments for next season -- and they're still recruiting.

Football Bowl Subdivision teams are allowed a maximum of 85 scholarship players on the roster and can sign a limit of 25 athletes each year. So how does the equation work?

"It may seem like a large number of extra players right now, but it's hard to judge ... because at the end of the season, guys might leave, some of [the recruits] might not qualify; it's just a fact of football," said Allen Wallace, editor of SuperPrep magazine. "... It's incredibly complicated, managing a football team in that regard. You have to weigh a lot of different factors -- injuries, transfers, borderline academic problems."

Davis, who is in his second season at UNC, says every year is different, but he is focused on putting together the best roster he can.

To be sure, the appearance of over-recruiting isn't uncommon. According to scout.com, Duke already has 26 verbal commitments -- one over the signing limit. Last year, Alabama, Florida, Miami and Virginia Tech all had more than 30, and most ACC teams have pushed the limit at one time or another.

But initial numbers can be deceiving, Wallace said.

In the case of UNC, junior receiver Hakeem Nicks could create a 13th scholarship opening if he goes pro early, as expected. Davis said he doesn't plan to meet with Nicks, or any other player, about their futures until after the bowl game.

In addition:

* Darius Powell and Kennedy Tinsley were dismissed from the team this season for violating team rules. If they don't return, that would leave two more vacancies.

* Reserve offensive lineman Zack Handerson will go on a medical hardship scholarship next season because of a shoulder injury; that means he won't count towards the 85-man limit.

* If any of the current commitments "grayshirt" -- meaning they don't enroll until January 2010 -- they will be counted with the 2010-11 class.

* And there's always the possibility that current players could transfer or not have their scholarships renewed.

Asked if he had an overall philosophy on how many commitments to take each season, Davis said it wasn't that simple.

"You have to look at it in relation to how many people are going to graduate, how many guys might be injured that might not be able to finish their North Carolina careers, so every year is going to be different," he said. "There's all kinds of things. There may be kids that may not be here next year, just from the standpoint that they may want to go some place where they can be a starter, so you never know. You can't get too far out ahead of yourself."

N.C. State, which didn't use its full allotment of 85 scholarships this season, has 20 commitments so far, according to scout.com. But recruiting coordinator Jerry Petercuskie said figuring out how many commitments to take each season is a balancing act because a team needs to be open and honest with the recruits and families while also trying to upgrade the team.

"We're not in the market of oversigning, unless there's a case where there are some borderline students who may not make it," he said. "And in that case, there's a plan for them."

Wallace said that many coaches take more verbal commitments than they have scholarships slots because they want to upgrade immediately: "Programs are under a lot of pressure to fix things, and if you don't follow the draconian route of upgrading talent level immediately, it might not matter because you might not be there very long."

The commitment juggling isn't limited to football, either.

For the 2004-05 season in basketball, for example, UNC coach Roy Williams had commitments from Quentin Thomas, J.R. Smith, Marvin Williams and JamesOn Curry. Had all signed, the Tar Heels would have been one over the scholarship limit of 13.

"In 25 years of college coaching, I've seen it start out where teams have more guys than spots, but it has always worked out," Roy Williams said in 2003.

That year, Smith opted to jump straight from high school to the NBA, and Williams rescinded Curry's scholarship after the player pleaded guilty to six felony drug counts. By the end of that season, UNC had won the NCAA championship.

"Every situation is different, every school is different," said Jamie Newberg, a national recruiting analyst for rivals.com. "... Right now, you just don't know what the attrition will be."

Wallace said that players' commitments often come with conditions that aren't made public, usually academic in nature. And he pointed out that until players sign letters of intent, commitments aren't binding, although honesty between coaches and recruits is key.

"You don't want to create a lot of negative ill will by promising things you can't deliver ... it's a tap dance, but you've got to be honest with the kids, or they're going to make you look bad in the press, and that can hurt your recruiting reputation in the long run," he said.

"Coaches know that, and most of the time, they have a plan that they're not going to publicize."