Projecting the NCHSAA girls soccer playoffs
Conference finish and MaxPreps.com ranking will factor into this year’s girls soccer playoffs. Here’s how.
To round out the 48- or 64-team field, teams will get in by their conference finish: first the 1s all get in (sorted by adjusted MaxPreps rank, hereafter referred to as the AMPR), then the 2s (also sorted by their AMPR), then conference tournament champions, then the 3s (also sorted by AMPR), 4s (also sorted by AMPR) and 5s (also sorted by AMPR) until you hit either 48 or 64.
So that decides who gets in.
But it does not decide where everyone gets seeded.
The 1s are seeded first, then the 2s. Then 3s that come from 9- or 10-team conferences (note: this only happens in 2A and 1A).
But the remaining 3s, 4s, 5s and conference tournament champs (those that are not already seeded as a 1 or 2) are scrambled together and sorted by AMPR to fill out the rest of the bracket.
There are 48 playoff teams in 1A and 4A and 64 in 2A and 3A. Half go in the west and half go in the east, based on the location of each individual school.
Adjusted MaxPreps rankings are on the NCHSAA website each Monday morning. AMPR takes out margin of victory from its computer formula. We will update the projections each week around that same time.
How we do projections
We’re checking conference standings this week and doing projections as if the season were to end today.
In the case of ties, we are looking at either head-to-head or AMPR to guess which team will finish with a better record after this last week.
Notes
Teams in the left column are automatic berths. The right column are at-large teams with their projected conference finish.
Teams that are underlined represent either the last 1-seed or 2-seed in that respective bracket.
“/” divides each bracket in half.
*-Needs tiebreaker.
**-This split-conference 1-seed would be seeded with the wild-cards if the playoffs were to begin today because it is neither at .500 or above nor in the top-3 of its conference’s overall standings.
Last projection update: Sunday, May 6
Last AMPR release: Monday, April 30
Automatic bids - 4A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Northwestern | 1. South Caldwell | |
South Meck | 1. Providence 2. Ardrey Kell | 3. Olympic 4. South Mecklenburg |
I-Meck | 1. Hough 2. Lake Norman | 3. Mallard Creek 4. Mooresville |
Southwestern | 1. Myers Park 2. Hickory Ridge | 3. Butler 4. Porter Ridge |
Central Piedmont | 1. Reagan 2. West Forysth | 3. East Forsyth 4. RJ Reynolds |
Metro | 1. Northwest Guilford 2. Page | 3. Grimsley 4. Ragsdale |
Sandhills Athletic | 1. Pinecrest 2. Richmond | 3. Jack Britt 4. Purnell Swett |
Triangle 6 | 1. Green Hope 2. Panther Creek | 3. Athens Drive 4. Cary |
Patriot Athletic | 1. Pine Forest | 4. Overhills |
South Wake | 1. Fuquay-Varina 2. Holly Springs | 3. Apex 4. Middle Creek 5. Apex Friendship |
Cap-7 | 1. Leesville Road 2. Broughton | 3. Millbrook 4. Sanderson |
Northern Athletic | 1. Heritage 2. Wakefield | 3. Corinth Holders 4. Wake Forest |
Mideastern | 1. Hoggard 2. Ashley | 3. Laney |
Eastern Carolina | 1. New Bern |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
5-Apex Friendship 40 / cutoff line / 5-Cardinal Gibbons 42 / 5-Independence 48 / 5-North Mecklenburg 50
East/West dividing line:
Pinecrest / Purnell Swett / dividing line / Jack Britt / Overhills
Conferences playing a conference tournament: Northern Athletic, Sandhills.
4A East
1-Hoggard vs BYE; 16-Sanderson vs 17-Corinth Holders
8-Ashley vs BYE; 9-Broughton vs 24-Overhills
4-Fuquay-Varina vs BYE; 13-Laney vs 20-Jack Britt
5-Heritage vs BYE; 12-Panther Creek vs 21-Apex Friendship
/
3-Green Hope vs BYE; 14-Millbrook vs 19-Athens Drive
6-New Bern vs BYE; 11-Holly Springs vs 22-Cary
2-Leesville Road vs BYE; 15-Apex vs 18-Middle Creek
7-Pine Forest vs BYE; 10-Wakefield vs 23-Wake Forest
4A West
1-Myers Park vs BYE; 16-East Forsyth vs 17-Mallard Creek
8-West Forsyth vs BYE; 9-Page vs 24-Purnell Swett
4-Providence vs BYE; 13-Richmond vs 20-Mooresville
5-Reagan vs BYE; 12-Hickory Ridge vs 21-Butler
/
3-Pinecrest vs BYE; 14-Olympic vs 19-Grimsley
6-Hough vs BYE; 11-Lake Norman vs 22-RJ Reynolds
2-Northwest Guilford vs BYE; 15-South Mecklenburg vs 18-Porter Ridge
7-South Caldwell vs BYE; 10-Ardrey Kell vs 23-Ragsdale
Automatic bids - 3A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Western Mountain | 1. TC Roberson 2. AC Reynolds 3. Asheville | 4. Tuscola |
Northwestern | 1. Watauga 2. Hickory | 4. Alexander Central |
Big South | 1. Kings Mountain 2. Crest | 3. Cramer 4. Forestview |
North Piedmont | 1. South Iredell 2. Carson | 3. North Iredell 4. Statesville |
Southern Carolina | 1. Charlotte Catholic 2. Weddington | 3. Cuthbertson 4. Marvin Ridge 5. Parkwood |
South Piedmont | 1. Cox Mill 2. Northwest Cabarrus | 3. Central Cabarrus 4. AL Brown |
Piedmont Triad | 1. Southwest Guilford 2. Mount Tabor | 3. Western Guilford 4. North Forsyth |
Mid-Piedmont | 1. Southern Alamance 2. Asheboro | 3. Southeast Guilford 4. Williams |
Mid-State | 1. Eastern Alamance 2. Northern Guilford | 3. Western Alamance 4. McMichael* or Rockingham County* |
Big Eight | 1. Chapel Hill 2. East Chapel Hill | 3. Cedar Ridge 4. Northern Durham |
Tri-County 6 | 1. Union Pines 2. Southern Lee | 3. Lee County 4. Harnett Central |
Patriot Athletic | 1. Terry Sanford 2. Gray’s Creek | |
Greater Neuse River | 1. Clayton 2. West Johnston | 3. Cleveland 4. Smithfield-Selma |
Big East | 1. Fike 2. Hunt | 3. Rocky Mount 4. Franklinton |
Mideastern | 1. New Hanover | 5. South Brunswick |
Eastern Carolina | 1. DH Conley 3. JH Rose | 4. CB Aycock |
Coastal | 1. Jacksonville 2. West Carteret | 3. Swansboro 4. White Oak 5. Havelock |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
5-Havelock 40 / 5-Parkwood 46 / cutoff line / 5-Concord 55 / 5-Northwood 59
note: the 5-seed from the Mideastern is in automatically as the second 3A team in that half of the split, but is seeded with the wild-cards and is not subject to missing the cutoff.
East/West dividing line:
McMichael / Western Guilford / Asheboro / Northern Guilford / Southeast Guilford / dividing line / Western Alamance / Williams / Southern Alamance
Conferences playing a conference tournament: Tri-County 6.
3A East
1-Southern Alamance vs 32-Smithfield-Selma; 16-West Johnston vs 17-Southern Lee
8-Eastern Alamance vs 25-Williams; 9-Union Pines vs 24-Havelock
4-Jacksonville vs 29-Rocky Mount; 13-Western Alamance vs 20-White Oak
5-DH Conley vs 28-Lee County; 12-East Chapel Hill vs 21-South Brunswick
/
3-Terry Sanford vs 30-Cleveland; 14-Gray’s Creek vs 19-Swansboro
6-New Hanover vs 27-Harnett Central; 11-West Carteret vs 22-Cedar Ridge
2-Chapel Hill vs 31-Franklinton; 15-Hunt vs 18-JH Rose
7-Clayton vs 26-CB Aycock; 10-Fike vs 23-Northern Durham
3A West
Note: McMichael and Rockingham County must flip a coin for the final spot from the Mid-State Conference.
1-Charlotte Catholic vs 32-Statesville; 16-Carson vs 17-Asheville
8-AC Reynolds vs 25-Western Guilford; 9-Weddington vs 24-Central Cabarrus
4-TC Roberson vs 29-Alexander Central; 13-Asheboro vs 20-Forestview
5-Southwest Guilford vs 28-McMichael; 12-Mount Tabor vs 21-Tuscola
/
3-South Iredell vs 30-AL Brown; 14-Hickory vs 19-Marvin Ridge
6-Kings Mountain vs 27-Southeast Guilford; 11-Northern Guilford vs 22-North Iredell
2-Cox Mill vs 31-North Forsyth; 15-Northwest Cabarrus vs 18-Cuthbertson
7-Watauga vs 26-Parkwood; 10-Crest vs 23-Cramer
Automatic bids - 2A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Mountain Six | 1. Hendersonville 2. Smoky Mountain | 3. Franklin 4. East Henderson |
Western Highlands | 1. Owen | 3. Madison County |
Southwestern | 1. R-S Central 2. South Point | 3. Shelby 4. East Rutherford |
Northwestern Foothills | 1. Hibriten 2. Foard | 3. West Iredell 4. Patton |
South Fork | 1. Lake Norman Charter 2. East Lincoln | 3. Lincolnton 4. Maiden |
Mountain Valley | 1. Wilkes Central 2. Ashe County | |
Western Piedmont | 1. Forbush 2. West Stokes | 3. North Surry 4. Atkins |
Central Carolina | 1. Salisbury 2. West Davidson 3. South Rowan | 4. North Davidson |
Rocky River | 1. CATA 2. Forest Hills | 3. West Stanly 4. East Montgomery |
PAC-7 | 1. Trinity 2. Randleman | 3. Jordan-Matthews 4. Wheatmore |
Mid-State | 1. Carrboro 2. DSA | 3. NCSSM 4. Bartlett Yancey |
Three Rivers | 1. East Bladen 2. Whiteville | |
Northern Carolina | 1. Roanoke Rapids 2. South Granville | 3. Bunn 4. Southern Vance |
East Central | 1. Clinton 2. East Duplin | 3. Spring Creek 4. James Kenan* or Midway* |
Eastern Plains | 1. Nash Central 2. North Johnston | 3/4. Beddingfield* 3/4. SouthWest Edgecombe* |
Eastern Carolina | 1. Washington 2. Greene Central | 3. South Lenoir |
Coastal 8 | 1. Dixon 2. Richlands | 3. Croatan 4. Southwest Onslow |
Northeastern Coastal | 1. First Flight 2. Currituck County | 3. Northeastern |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
4-Patton 70 / 4-East Montgomery 73 / 4-Beddingfield 74 / 4-Bartlett Yancey 80 / cutoff line / 4-Pasquotank County 81 / 4-North Lenoir 92 / 4-South Columbus 96 /
East/West dividing line:
West Stanly / North Davidson / Wheatmore / dividing line / Trinity / East Montgomery / Jordan-Matthews
2A East
Note: Midway and James Kenan must draw for fourth place in the East Central Conference.
1-Dixon vs 32-Bartlett Yancey; 16-Randleman vs 17-Greene Central
8-East Bladen vs 25-Bunn; 9-Nash Central vs 24-NCSSM
4-Roanoke Rapids vs 29-SouthWest Edgecombe; 13-East Duplin vs 20-Southwest Onslow
5-Carrboro vs 28-South Lenoir; 12-DSA vs 21-Spring Creek
/
3-First Flight vs 30-East Montgomery; 14-South Granville vs 19-Croatan
6-Washington vs 27-Southern Vance; 11-Currituck County vs 22-James Kenan
2-Clinton vs 31-Beddingfield; 15-Whiteville vs 18-North Johnston
7-Trinity vs 26-Northeastern; 10-Richlands vs 23-Jordan-Matthews
2A West
1-Lake Norman Charter vs 32-Patton; 16-Ashe County vs 17-Forest Hills
8-Owen vs 25-Atkins; 9-CATA vs 24-Shelby
4-Forbush vs 29-Maiden; 13-South Point vs 20-Lincolnton
5-Hibriten vs 28-Wheatmore; 12-Smoky Mountain vs 21-West Iredell
/
3-Salisbury vs 30-East Rutherford; 14-Foard vs 19-North Davidson
6-R-S Central vs 27-East Henderson; 11-West Davidson vs 22-Franklin
2-Hendersonville vs 31-West Stanly; 15-East Lincoln vs 18-South Rowan
7-Wilkes Central vs 26-Madison County; 10-West Stokes vs 23-North Surry
Automatic bids - 1A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Smoky Mountain | 1. Murphy 2. Highlands | 3. Hayesville 4. Swain County |
Western Highlands | 1. Polk County | 4. Mitchell County |
Southern Piedmont | 1. Lincoln Charter 2. Thomas Jefferson | 3. Highland Tech 4. Piedmont Community |
Mountain Valley | 1. Starmount | 4. Elkin 5. East Wilkes |
PAC-7 | 1. Union Academy 2. Pine Lake Prep | 3. CSD 4. Mountain Island Charter 5. Queen’s Grant |
Northwest | 1. South Stokes 2. Bishop McGuinness | 3. Mount Airy 4. East Surry* or North Stokes* |
Yadkin Valley | 1. Gray Stone Day 2/3. North Moore* | 2/3. South Davidson* 4. West Montgomery |
Central Tar Heel | 1. Raleigh Charter 2. Research Triangle | 3. Woods Charter 4. Chatham Charter |
Three Rivers | 1. West Columbus | |
North Central | 1. Franklin Academy 2. East Wake Academy | 3. Roxboro Community 4. Voyager Academy 5. Vance Charter |
Northern Carolina | 1. Granville Central | |
Carolina 1A | 1. Neuse Charter 2. Princeton | 3/4. Rosewood* 3/4. Hobbton* |
Tar-Roanoke | ||
Coastal 8 | 1. East Carteret** | |
Coastal Plains | 1. Southside | 2. Tarboro |
Albemarle | 1. Manteo | 2. Edenton Holmes 3. Camden County |
Atlantic 6 | 1. Cape Hatteras |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
5-East Wilkes 33 / 5-Vance Charter 37 / 5-Queen’s Grant 39 / cutoff line / 5-North Stanly 45 / 5-River Mill Academy 47 / 5-North Duplin 55
East/West dividing line:
South Davidson / dividing line / Bishop McGuinness / North Moore / Chatham Charter
1A East
Note: the Yadkin Valley must draw for the 2-seed between North Moore and South Davidson.
1-Franklin Academy vs BYE; 16-Woods Charter vs 17-Voyager Academy
8-Southside vs BYE; 9-East Wake Academy vs 24-Tarboro
4-Manteo vs BYE; 13-Princeton vs 20-Chatham Charter
5-Granville Central vs BYE; 12-North Moore vs 21-Vance Charter
/
3-Neuse Charter vs BYE; 14-East Carteret vs 19-Camden County
6-West Columbus vs BYE; 11-Research Triagnle vs 22-Hobbton
2-Raleigh Charter vs BYE; 15-Roxboro Community vs 18-Edenton Holmes
7-Cape Hatteras vs BYE; 10-Bishop McGuinness vs 23-Rosewood
1A West
Note: the Yadkin Valley must draw for the 2-seed between North Moore and South Davidson.
Note: the Northwest must draw for its 4-seed between East Surry and North Stokes.
1-Union Academy vs BYE; 16-Elkin vs 17-East Wilkes
8-Pine Lake Prep vs BYE; 9-Thomas Jefferson vs 24-Mitchell County
4-Starmount vs BYE; 13-South Davidson vs 20-West Montgomery
5-Gray Stone Day vs BYE; 12-Mount Airy vs 21-Highland Tech
/
3-Lincoln Charter vs BYE; 14-Mountain Island Charter vs 19-Swain County
6-Murphy vs BYE; 11-CSD vs 22-East Surry
2-South Stokes vs BYE; 15-Hayesville vs 18-Queen’s Grant
7-Polk County vs BYE; 10-Highlands vs 23-Piedmont Community
This story was originally published May 6, 2018 at 9:36 PM with the headline "Projecting the NCHSAA girls soccer playoffs."