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The others have been injured (Smith, Brown and Cadillac Williams); suspended (Jones); ordinary (Rolle and Rogers); and bad. Williamson, No. 7 overall, was traded by the Vikings this year for a sixth-rounder after dropping many of the passes thrown anywhere near him.

Mike Williams? One of four receivers in five years taken first by Detroit, he's not in the NFL.

The Giants had no first-rounder that year; they traded it to the Chargers for Eli Manning. San Diego used that year's pick to take Shawne Merriman, already a certified star, with the 12th pick.

But New York's second-, third- and fourth-rounders were Corey Webster, Justin Tuck and Brandon Jacobs, all integral members of last season's title team. Jacobs is another example of "you never know" -- a third-string running back behind Cadillac Williams and Brown at Auburn who transferred to Southern Illinois to get playing time.

A tangled Web (site)

Another new development, the result of the interactive nature of the Web, allows fans to chime in with their own opinions, sometimes knowledgeable, sometimes strange and sometimes abusive.

Example: A writer for a major Web site did his first mock draft in February and prefaced it by noting that it was far too early for real judgments, and that the order would change drastically. That didn't stop the bloggers who ignored his self-deprecating introduction from castigating him for giving player X to team Y and other malfeasances.

Mock drafts are a combination of information from a variety of sources. Or, in many cases, disinformation.

Most recently, for example, reports circulated that Vernon Gholston, the highly rated Ohio State defensive end/linebacker, was "sliding" as teams continued to analyze his game tapes. But a couple of respected personnel men think it's the opposite -- stories peddled by teams that pick lower and would like Gholston.

Those who know the drafting history of Bill Parcells, the new overseer of the Miami Dolphins, suggest the Dolphins could take him No. 1 because Parcells is constantly trying to find the next Lawrence Taylor. Gholston fits that mold, as did two other high picks by the Tuna: DeMarcus Ware in Dallas and John Abraham with the Jets.

But no one really knows.

"I have spent a lot of time with Bill, but he is not going to tell me, and he's definitely not going to tell you all," Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newsome said during his media briefing this week.

Gil Brandt, one of the architects of the modern scouting system during nearly 30 years with the Cowboys, says the reason that even the best personnel evaluators sometimes fail is simple.

"The hardest thing to do is figure out what someone will do when he suddenly gets rich," he says. "Will he work hard to get better despite the money? Or will he figure he has it made? None of us can really tell that because they'll all tell you they work hard. The best we can do is an educated guess."

All in all, the draft has spawned a cottage industry.

"It's a lot of fun because you can be on radio and you can write about it, and the NFL loves that," Newsome says.

And you can lie without being told you're dishonest.

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